Gambling regulator threatens prediction market with High Court action

A general view of the Four Courts in Dublin (Niall Carson/PA)

One of the largest prediction market websites has been threatened with court action if it does not geoblock Ireland, the head of the Irish gambling regulator has said.

Prediction markets are platforms where users can trade bets and gamble cryptocurrency on sports, the financial sector, politics and more, including events relating to the war in the Middle East, the existence of aliens, and tweets posted by Elon Musk.

Anne Marie Caulfield, who has been chief executive of the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) since it began operations last year, said prediction markets amount to betting and therefore fall under her remit.

She said the GRAI enforcement team has already been active in the space, with one of the largest such markets already geoblocking on foot of “intervention” from the authority.

Speaking on RTÉ’s This Week radio programme, Ms Caulfield said a second “is in the process of doing so”.

She added: “And if they don’t, it’s open to us to go to the High Court.”

She said sites were withdrawn in Ireland in the “vast majority” of the almost 30 interventions the GRAI had made.

She added that this had happened as quickly as 35 minutes after the intervention.

Polymarket is restricted in several countries (Cillian Sherlock/PA)

Asked what the High Court action may look like, Ms Caulfield said: “In the instance where they don’t do so, we can go to the High Court and get a blocking order for access to the site, and also in relation to the funding involved.”

Pressed on whether that action had been threatened, she said: “We have issued warning letters, yes, to that effect.”

Ms Caulfield did not name the prediction markets involved.

However, users from Ireland are already prohibited from trading “event contracts” on the prediction market Kalshi, as per its membership agreement which also lists 55 other restricted countries.

One of the other main prediction markets, Polymarket, has seen restrictions in more than 30 countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, the UK, and Poland – while it operates in the US with additional compliance measures.

In May, Tánaiste and Finance Minister Simon Harris said he would ask gardaí, regulators and government departments to examine “suspicious bets” made on Polymarket.

He raised “grave concerns” around a “Wild West” of unregulated betting on the platform, as he said it would be prudent to examine if there was money laundering occurring.

Tánaiste Simon Harris (Liam McBurney/PA)

His comments came after reports highlighted a million dollars worth of betting on the outcome of the Dublin Central by-election, with hundreds of thousands of that volume placed on Gerry “The Monk” Hutch not to win a seat – which is what transpired.

There is no suggestion of wrongdoing on behalf of any candidate.

Mr Harris said: “What seems to be developing at a global scale and indeed a rapid pace now is a kind of Wild West where people are placing bets in the form of cryptocurrency in a secretive, murky and unregulated manner.”

Polymarket has been contacted for comment.