State papers: Officials asked to redraw Border, secret files show 

A scenario examined was the possibility of military intervention to prevent the emergence of an independent Northern Ireland through trying 'to subdue loyalist resistance and to dominate the entire Protestant population of Northern Ireland'. File picture :RollingNews.ie

Secret documents by the Irish government examined possible scenarios which might arise from a British withdrawal from the North, including a major redrawing of the Border.

Newly released files from the National Archives show civil servants were ordered by the Government in July 1974 following the collapse of the Sunningdale power-sharing agreement to outline various political scenarios which might follow. 

The impetus for the exercise was the growing level of paramilitary violence and serious doubts about the British government’s commitment to stay in the North.

One scenario outlined by officials was a redrawing of the Border, with up to two-thirds of Northern Ireland together with almost half a million inhabitants being transferred to the Republic.

A report entitled “Negotiated Repartition of Northern Ireland” estimated the cost of delineating the new border on the island of Ireland would cost up to IR£873m — almost €8.5bn in today’s money — but with no guarantee the British government would contribute to the cost.

However, Irish officials also acknowledged the British government was unlikely to support a redrawing of the Border with the reduced area of Northern Ireland remaining within the UK.

They pointed out the area would include Belfast, which would contain “the seeds of further violence unless there was a very large population movement which would be unlikely to take place voluntarily if the area were to remain under Westminster jurisdiction”. 

Military intervention

Another scenario examined was the possibility of military intervention to prevent the emergence of an independent Northern Ireland through trying “to subdue loyalist resistance and to dominate the entire Protestant population of Northern Ireland”. 

Civil servants reckoned such a measure was “beyond our military and administrative capabilities”.

The report concluded the only possible solution was to redraw the Border in a way that majority nationalist areas would be moved into the Republic.

Such a transfer of territory at a minimum would include Fermanagh, parts of Tyrone, Derry city, Newry and parts of south Armagh and south Down with a combined population of 323,000, of which almost two-thirds would be Catholics.

The area itself represented about 40% of the existing land area of Northern Ireland.

A wider redrawing of the Border would also add in extra parts of Derry, Tyrone and Armagh covering about two-thirds of the land area and a population of 486,000, of which almost 60% would be Catholics.

The report also calculated the remaining portion of Northern Ireland would be more economically viable than an independent state comprising the entire six counties as the areas transferred to the Republic were relatively poorer.

It also observed the entire island of Ireland could benefit from such a redrawing of the Border, if repartition was agreed by all parties without any escalation of violence as it should lead to the end of tensions that existed at the time.

On the other hand, the report did accept it could also impose “a tremendous economic burden” if it had to be redrawn as a result of serious violence and substantial population movements.