90% of emperor penguin colonies doomed to extinction by century's end

An emperor penguin colony at Snow Hill Island in Antarctica. Between 2018 and 2022, 30% of the 62 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica were affected by partial or total sea ice loss
Photo by Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images)

More than 90% of emperor penguin colonies will be doomed to extinction by the end of the century if current global warming trends continue, a new study suggests.

Published in the Communications Earth & Environment journal, scientists conclude that due to sea ice loss last year, it is highly probable that no chicks had survived from four of the five known emperor penguin colonies in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea in Antarctica.

British Antarctic Survey researchers looked at satellite images that showed the loss of sea ice at breeding sites, well before chicks would have developed waterproof feathers.

They said that emperor penguins — beloved from children's films such as Happy Feet, which featured the likes of Robin Williams and Nicole Kidman — have previously responded to incidents of sea ice loss by moving to more stable sites the following year.  However, this strategy won’t work if sea ice habitat across an entire region is affected, they warned.

Emperor penguins are dependent on stable sea ice firmly attached to the shore for most of the year. Sea ice extent, which describes the total area covered by some amount of ice, was the lowest experienced in the 45-year satellite record last December. 

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In the Bellingshausen Sea, the home of the penguin colonies in this study, sea ice didn’t start to re-form until late April 2023, BAS said.

Lead author of the study, Dr Peter Fretwell, said: "We have never seen emperor penguins fail to breed, at this scale, in a single season. The loss of sea ice in this region during the Antarctic summer made it very unlikely that displaced chicks would survive.

"We know that emperor penguins are highly vulnerable in a warming climate — and current scientific evidence suggests that extreme sea ice loss events like this will become more frequent and widespread."

Antarctica has now seen the two lowest sea ice extent in 45 years of records over the past two years. Between 2018 and 2022, 30% of the 62 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica were affected by partial or total sea ice loss, BAS said.