Antarctic wildlife faces extinction in the century unless conservation efforts increase 

Scientists said 'up to 80% of emperor penguin colonies are projected to be quasi-extinct by 2100' if 'business-as-usual increases in greenhouse gas emissions' continue.

Up to two-thirds of wildlife and plants in the Antarctic, including emperor penguins, will be in decline throughout the century, unless conservation efforts are stepped up.

Climate change is identified as the most serious threat to Antarctic biodiversity by 29 leading experts, in a study published in PLOS Biology scientific journal.

Emperor penguins would be threatened with extinction in a very worst-case scenario, the modelling found.

The study, led by Jasmine Rachael Lee at the University of Queensland, found that under current management strategies for the Antarctic, and if global warming continues to 2C, some 65% of land plants and animals will decline by 2100.

With an investment of under €2bn over the next 80 years, nearly three-quarters of animal and plant species would get a new lease of life, the study found.

Although Antarctica is relatively free from many of the environmental threats that beset the rest of the world, eg deforestation to generate land for agriculture, threats to Antarctic biodiversity are intensifying at an unprecedented rate. 

"The Antarctic Peninsula was one of the most rapidly warming regions globally in the second half of the 20th century.

"This trend has recently paused, but many locations have still experienced short-term extreme events, such as heat waves with record high air temperatures," the study warned.

"Although Antarctica’s geographic isolation and extreme climate have historically afforded some protection to the continent, the combination of increasing human activity and warming is also lowering the barriers to the arrival and establishment of non-native species," it added.

Despite the interest in conserving Antarctic biodiversity, there is no comprehensive assessment of the costs of effective conservation, the scientists said. The study added: 

Up to 80% of emperor penguin colonies are projected to be quasi-extinct by 2100 (decline by more than 90%) with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse gas emissions. However, if Paris Climate Agreement measures to limit warming to less than 2C are met, this estimate reduces to 31%. 

Further limiting warming to 1.5C will likely provide even greater benefits, as predicted for emperor penguins as well as biodiversity globally, it said.

A landmark global agreement on biodiversity was signed this month at the Cop15 summit in Montreal.

The most significant part of the agreement is a commitment to protect 30% of land and water considered important for biodiversity by 2030. At present, around 17% of terrestrial and 10% of marine areas are protected.