Covid fears led to significant decline in births across Europe last year

The duration of lockdowns was the only factor associated with the decline in live births in January 2021, compared with January 2019 and January 2018, researchers found.

Fears of a Covid-19 health crisis during the first wave of the pandemic likely led to a significant drop in babies being born across Europe.

The continent saw a 14% drop in the number of babies being born in January 2021 compared with live births in the same month in previous years, researchers have said.

Scientists from Switzerland said countries with the toughest lockdowns in early 2020 and over-occupied intensive care units experienced the biggest drops in live births nine to 10 months later.

The team said these findings, published in the journal Human Reproduction, may lead to "long-term consequences on demographics, particularly in western Europe where there are ageing populations".

Dr Leo Pomar, associate professor at the School of Health Sciences in Lausanne, Switzerland, and first author of the study, said: 

The decline in births nine months after the start of the pandemic appears to be more common in countries where health systems were struggling and capacity in hospitals was exceeded.

"This led to lockdowns and social distancing measures to try to contain the pandemic. The longer the lockdowns the fewer pregnancies occurred in this period, even in countries not severely affected by the pandemic.

"We think that couples' fears of a health and social crisis at the time of the first wave of Covid-19 contributed to the decrease in live births nine months later."

In Europe, Lithuania and Romania saw the biggest drop in live births, at 28% and 23% respectively. Sweden, which did not have a lockdown but did have a high number of deaths, did not experience a drop in live births, the researchers found.

The team found the duration of lockdowns was the only factor associated with the decline in live births in January 2021, compared with January 2019 and January 2018.

Dr Pomar said: "Lockdown duration has a direct impact on couples."

Median age of 44

Meanwhile, figures from the European Commission's data analysis wing Eurostat show that the median age across the EU is just over 44. 

The median is the middle figure in a row of numbers sorted from top to bottom, as opposed to the average, so the median age means that half the people are younger than 44 and half are older.

In the south of Ireland, the median age is just under 40, while in Dublin and the rest of the midlands, it is exactly 37.5, according to Eurostat's figures.

Most capital regions in the EU had relatively young populations, the data show, but there are eight regions across Germany, Italy, and Spain with a median age of at least 50 years in 2021.

Eurostat's data have previously shown the EU’s population fell in 2020, reflecting the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

By the end of 2020, the EU’s population was 112,000 smaller than at the beginning of the year, the first time the total number of inhabitants in the EU had fallen since 1960.

Its latest data on mortality in the EU from July and August show extreme weather may have led to more deaths than normal.

Excess mortality in the EU fell to +12% in August 2022 compared with the peak of +16% recorded in July, which was the highest value on record to date in 2022 and unusually high for the month of July, Eurostat said.

So-called "excess mortality" is defined as "the number of deaths from all causes measured during a crisis, above what could be observed under "normal’ conditions".