Nphet chair rejects claim that most under-12s will get Covid before spring

Prof Philip Nolan was responding to a suggestion by infectious disease consultant Prof Clíona Ní Cheallaigh that Covid was being allowed 'rip through primary schools'. Stock picture

Claims that most school children under the age of 12 will get Covid before spring have been rejected by the chair of Nphet's modelling group.

Professor Phillip Nolan said such a situation was "not plausible" and was based on an "uncritical reading" of a modelling study.

That modelling study depended on an 'unrealistic assumption' that each infected child would infect another 2-4 children — giving a reproduction number of two to four. However, with basic mitigation measures, the average reproduction number in Irish schools is less than one, he said on Twitter.

A lot of commentary saying that most or all schoolchildren will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the coming months, based on an uncritical reading of this modelling study. It is highly unlikely that the scenario modelled will happen in the real world. 1/12https://t.co/AlMbCNWgK8 pic.twitter.com/tNrQtZfEQh

— Professor Philip Nolan (@PhilipNolan_MU) September 12, 2021

However, infectious disease consultant Professor Clíona Ní Cheallaigh said most children could have Covid before spring unless more is done to make schools safer. Prof Ní Cheallaigh, a consultant in St James’ Hospital, said the country is currently letting the disease “rip through primary schools”.

She said children should wear masks to mitigate the risks and schools should ensure that classrooms are well ventilated.

"It's important not to panic, but be realistic, we do need to face facts," she told RTÉ: 

I would probably bet that most kids in Ireland under 12 will get Covid before the spring, the way we are going on now. Not many kids are going to get very severely unwell, but a small percentage will.

"I don't think we are really trying to stop the spread in primary schools — it's not possible to do that within an unventilated classroom with 30 kids not wearing masks," she said.

An estimated 12,000 children are currently out of school as close contacts of someone with the virus. Nphet is examining whether to change the rules around children isolating if they don't have symptoms.

HSE CEO Paul Reid told Newstalk that although it would be a difficult decision, the impact of keeping children out of school “where it’s probably unnecessary” must be examined.