Explainer: Is the Irish vaccination programme working?

Currently, some 6.23m vaccine doses have been administered. By this weekend, 90% of adults will be partially vaccinated against coronavirus, and 80% will be fully vaccinated. File photo

Ireland is well accustomed to being spoken about during the Covid-19 pandemic, after being labelled a virus hotspot during the Winter surge.

Now, however, the conversation around this country is much more positive, as we have one of the best vaccine uptake rates in the world.

Currently, some 6.23m vaccine doses have been administered. By this weekend, 90% of adults will be partially vaccinated, and 80% will be fully vaccinated.

But if our vaccine uptake is so high, then why are there still so many cases being reported each day? 

More than half of Covid cases in hospitals are patients who are not fully vaccinated. For patients in ICU the figure is 76-80%. 

According to Professor Philip Nolan, chairman of the Irish epidemiological modelling advisory group, this is not a reason to be alarmed, and the increasing proportion of vaccinated hospitalisations is in line with expectations.

 “[It] tells us vaccines are working, are highly effective, and are preventing a very large number of infections and hospitalisations,” he said.

#VaccinesWork. The increasing proportion of cases and hospitalisations in fully vaccinated people is in line with expectations, and tells us vaccines are working, are highly effective, and are preventing a very large number of infections and hospitalisations. 1/6 pic.twitter.com/E8g29FxEMT

— Professor Philip Nolan (@PhilipNolan_MU) August 12, 2021

Prof. Nolan acknowledged that we see the number of vaccinated individuals who have contracted the disease, but we do not see how many were protected.

“What we don’t see is that for every fully vaccinated case, vaccines are preventing about four other cases. Vaccines are preventing at least 2,700 cases per week per million population, probably more,” he said in a thread on Twitter.

“Similarly, for every vaccinated person who requires admission to hospital with a breakthrough infection, vaccines are averting 10-12 other severe infections and hospital admissions, at least 120 per week per million population.” 

Paul Reid, chief executive of the HSE, said there were 155 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 deaths notified to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre between April 1 and August 7.

Of the 150 of those for which they have vaccination data, 62 deaths were reported in people who received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, and seven were individuals who were fully vaccinated.

But as Ireland continues to be labelled a poster child, what does that mean next? Booster shots? Vaccines for children under 12? Both of these ideas are valid questions, but they are far from straightforward.

Mr Reid said on Thursday that 12 to 15-year-olds are likely to be the last cohort for which vaccine registration opens. This makes sense, as the vaccination of young children is ethically complex.

When it comes to vaccination, it is important to weigh up risks and benefits. Seeing as the risk of severe Covid to children is extremely low, it is then necessary to see if the possible side-effects of the jabs are proportionate to the benefit they provide for this age group.

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Booster shots are another ethical conundrum Ireland faces.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) called for a moratorium on booster shots until the end of September, citing this vaccine inequity.

For example, Congo, Tanzania and South Sudan all have less than 1% of their population vaccination.

It has widely been acknowledged that nobody is safe until everybody is safe; we need global vaccination to end the pandemic.