Official report says cyberattacks could cause 'civil unrest'

A major cyberattack could have an impact on “energy supply, welfare payments, or traffic management, to name just a few”.

Future cyberattacks could have serious effects on the economy and the cohesion of society — and may even cause civil unrest, Government officials have warned.

The Department of the Taoiseach said the country’s energy supply, welfare payments, or traffic management systems could suffer a similar cyberattack that crippled the health system in recent months.

The draft National Risk Assessment (NRA): Overview of Strategic Risks 2020/2021 is being put out for public consultation before being finalised.

The wide-ranging 59-page draft details a range of significant threats to the country, including:

• Resurgence of Covid-19 and future pandemics, with man-made actions in relation to the climate and wildlife habitats being possible factors;
• Inadequate supply of affordable housing was “increasingly one of the most significant risks”;
• Social cohesion, particularly among young people, resulting from continuing high unemployment, housing shortages, and disinformation;
• Disruption to energy supplies, particularly with a growing population and demand, including from more data centres;
• Brexit risks to security in the North, saying it has had a “destabilising” effect there, and risk to trade between Ireland and Britain;
• Ireland was now more of an “outlier” in the EU without Britain, with whom Ireland was closely aligned on both trade and justice issues;
• High levels of public debt, projected to be close to a quarter of a trillion euros this year.

The report said the period since the last NRA was published, in 2019, has been “particularly turbulent, with a number of major risks coming to pass, which have had and will continue to have significant repercussions”.

“The Covid-19 pandemic is the most significant, not least in terms of the costs to health and life," it stated. 

Brexit and the cybersecurity attack on the health service are also two major risks that have materialised.” 

"Combined with Brexit, the experience of the pandemic has demonstrated the absolute importance of strong international transport and freight links."

In relation to cybersecurity, it said there could be a similar impact on the economy and society as there was on the health system if there was a major cyberattack on “energy supply, welfare payments, or traffic management, to name just a few”.

The risk of failures in cybersecurity highlights the impact on disruption to critical information infrastructure, data theft, or fraud.” 

It said that with Ireland “positioning itself as a digital leader”, the impact of a cyberattack was significant.

It said there was a “wide range of significant risks for major national infrastructure, including energy, transport, telecoms, health, and financial systems”.

The risk of further attacks continues, attacks which could have serious effects on the economy and on the cohesion of society in general," it added.

“The potential impact on the provision of services has the potential to lead to civil unrest in addition to significant disruption for citizens, while prolonged or repeated incidents risk creating a backlash against digitisation, with further economic consequences and reputational damage to businesses and public service.”