Reopening indoor dining this month could lead to six-fold increase in cases, GP warns
Ireland could see cases rise by a factor of six if indoor hospitality reopens, as the North has seen already, a Donegal-based GP has claimed
Ireland could see a six-fold increase in Covid cases if indoor hospitality reopens later this month, a GP has warned.
Donegal-based GP Denis McCauley said high infection rates in Donegal are “mirroring” high rates in Derry in Northern Ireland, where indoor hospitality is open and no real border exists for the local population or for the virus.
The Delta variant is currently leading to a fresh surge in infections in the Republic, with daily case numbers exceeding 500 during the week.
Speaking to Mr McCauley said case numbers in Northern Ireland have gone up by a factor of six, which is "what the Delta virus does."
“In Northern Ireland they have hospitality which is much more open than us so if we had hospitality opened and we had the Delta variant present we would potentially have a factor of six in our cases here."
Dr McCauley said infection rates were rising and reopening indoor hospitality came with risks.
“Hospitality will either add a bit of fuel or a lot of fuel, depending on what decisions are made,” he said.
His comments come as new data collated by the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) and National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL) show that 472 cases of the more transmissible Delta variant were sequenced by 23 June.
The HSPC report also shows that 46% of Delta variant cases were detected among people aged between 19-34 years, 18% were among children under 18, 19% were among 35-44 year-olds and 14% were among 45-64 year-olds.
The impact of Covid vaccines can be seen by a low number of Delta cases detected in people over 65 years of age (2.5%).
Since mid-December, the genetic material of more than 16,800 Covid samples have been sequenced as part of an ongoing surveillance programme to monitor new and emerging variants of concern.
The Delta variant, which originated in India, has been gaining ground on the previously dominant Alpha variant, first identified in the UK, since it was first detected in Ireland in late March/early April.
There has been little change or no change in the detection of other variants of concern - 72 cases of the Beta variant, which originated in South Africa and 29 cases of the Gamma variant, which originated in Brazil.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn said that the proportion of cases associated with the Delta variant had increased from 5% in early June to 70% of cases in more recent weeks.
Believed to be up to twice as transmissible as other strains, evidence to date also suggests that being fully vaccinated provides greater protection against the Delta variant.
More than half of the adult population is now fully vaccinated in Ireland, although vaccine supplies are expected to taper off this month, potentially slowing down the rollout.
The more infectious variant is spreading in the UK and is expected to be dominant across Europe by August.
In the UK, health officials say the link between the virus and hospitalisations and death has been weakened because of the rollout of vaccines (66% of UK adults are fully vaccinated), although some remain concerned over the risk to unvaccinated young people and children and the potential for ‘Long-Covid’.
Despite surging infection rates in the UK – more than 32,000 new cases and 34 deaths on Saturday – the government intends to lift almost all remaining public health restrictions, including social distancing and mask-wearing, in England from July 19.
Meanwhile European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that 500 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines had been delivered, which was enough to vaccinate 70% of all EU adults by Sunday.
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