Growth rate of Covid cases in Ireland increasing by 'about 3% per day'
Prof Nolan said that the vaccines are working but the public needs “to help them by keeping the level of circulating virus as low as possible. Case counts and hospitalisations are both key indicators.”
Covid-19 case numbers are increasing at a rate of “about 3% per day”, according to a health chief.
Professor Philip Nolan said that while vaccines are offering protection, the numbers in hospitals are also “trending upwards”.
Prof Nolan, chair of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, has called on the public to stay safe and to keep following public health advice.
Case numbers increasing in Ireland, growth rate about 3% per day. The numbers in hospital also trending upwards, though vaccination is offering increasing protection. Stay safe, and let’s keep taking the basic measures to limit transmission. 1/5 pic.twitter.com/BFtHHISmtt
— Professor Philip Nolan (@PhilipNolan_MU) July 9, 2021
It comes as more than 600 cases of the virus were reported in Ireland for the first time since April.
The Health Protection Surveillance Centre reported 631 new cases on Friday.
Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said the high number of cases is evidence the disease is prevalent in communities again.
Prof Nolan said: "Case numbers increasing in Ireland, growth rate about 3% per day" adding that the vaccines are working but the public needs “to help them by keeping the level of circulating virus as low as possible. Case counts and hospitalisations are both key indicators.”
He stated on Twitter: "Growth in cases, in prior phases of the pandemic, has led to numbers in hospital and ICU growing at similar rates; vaccination changes this link, but we still see severe disease when infection levels grow, especially if we allow a large or sustained increase.”
Prior to the vaccine rollout, Prof Nolan said that there were around “30 to 50 admissions to hospital per 1000 cases, largely depending on age-mix; it’s currently around 20 per 1000”.
He said that it is now vital that levels of infection are kept low.
“If we got to 2000 cases per day we could expect 40 admissions per day and potentially 200-400 people in hospital with Covid-19.”
We’re partially vaccinated. It’s vital that we keep levels of infection low. If we got to 2000 cases per day we could expect 40 admissions per day and potentially 200-400 people in hospital with COVID-19. Symptoms = stay home. Distance, masks, hygiene, ventilation. 5/5 pic.twitter.com/ztZd2fufXH
— Professor Philip Nolan (@PhilipNolan_MU) July 9, 2021
HSE chief executive Paul Reid confirmed on Saturday that 55% of the adult population has now been fully vaccinated.
He added that more than 70% has been partially vaccinated, stating that over 275,000 jabs have been administered this week.
Meanwhile, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer said that the number of cases associated to the Delta variant has increased rapidly over the past four weeks.
Dr Ronan Glynn said that in early June, the Delta variant accounted for 5% of cases whereas now 70% of cases and rising are attributed to it.
According to the available scientific evidence, Dr Glynn said the variant appears to be up to twice as transmissible as the virus Ireland was dealing with last summer.
"This increased transmissibility is now playing out in the changing profile of the disease here," he said.
“Over the past fortnight, our 14-day incidence has increased by over 30%, our five-day average of cases has increased from just over 300 cases per day to almost 500 cases per day.”
The Delta variant appears to infect people who have only received one dose of a two-dose vaccine which is a cause for concern among health officials.
The HSE’s chief clinical officer has said that there is a 5% rate of people who have not attended for their second vaccine dose.
People are urged to take up their appointment for their second dose as soon as it is offered to them.
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