Tony Holohan: Localised lockdown for Donegal 'obviously a potential scenario'

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said the actions that are driving the high rates of Covid-19 in this area of the country are actions that 'even the dogs on the street' know shouldn’t be happening. Picture: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

Public health officials have raised concerns about the prevalence of Covid-19 in Donegal, which they say is being driven by “persistent and reasonably widespread non-compliance” with restrictions.

Speaking at a briefing by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) on Friday, Dr Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer, said the 14-day incidence rate per 100,000 population in Donegal was more than double the national rate.

The incidence rate in Donegal is 293.4 per 100,000 population, compared to the national rate of 127.3 per 100,000, he said.

In the Milford area of Donegal, however, the incidence is 675 per 100,000 and in Letterkenny is almost 640 per 100,000, he added.

“At the moment it doesn't appear that workplaces are an acute driver and unfortunately what’s being reported is persistent and reasonably widespread non-compliance with basic measures,” Dr Glynn said.

Social events

Outbreaks have been associated with birthday parties, peer parties, secondary school students meeting up and socialising outside of school and social events linked to funerals and wakes, he added.

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said the actions that are driving the high rates of Covid-19 in this area of the country are actions that “even the dogs on the street” know shouldn’t be happening.

There is a "window of opportunity" for the community to reverse the trend.

It’s safe to say that if we had anything like the situation that pertains in Donegal pertaining to the rest of the country, we would not be recommending these [re-opening] measures. We are genuinely concerned about the situation.” 

He said preventing further reopening of society in Donegal due to the high incidence rate is “obviously a potential scenario”, but that the team "do not envisage it at this time”.

Asked if he believed there would be a need to return to level 5 restrictions in the future, Dr Holohan said he could “never say never”, but he “does not anticipate” a return to such stringent restrictions.

'Significant uncertainty'

Prof Philip Nolan, chairman of the Irish Epidemiological Advisory Modelling Group, said the current situation nationally is broadly positive with some “significant uncertainty”.

There has been an increase in the average case count in recent days, he said, and there is a “considerable amount of variability in the case count day on day”.

The number of Covid-related deaths is continuing to decrease, while deaths in nursing home settings have “all but disappeared”.

The R number is between 1 and 1.2, Prof Nolan said, but he added that there was a need to “redouble our efforts in the coming weeks”.

He presented modelling which showed from May 10, following the partial reopening of society, the R number increases to 1.25 and beyond June 7, it could rise to 1.5.

“We can’t say with any certainty what will happen in the coming weeks… [it] depends on how we choose to engage with what we’re allowed to do,” Prof Nolan said.

If all of us strictly adhere to restrictions that remain in place, we think the next few weeks are low to medium risk. The fundamental message is not to get ahead of ourselves.” 

On Friday, an additional 545 confirmed cases of Covid-19 were notified to Nphet, bringing the national total of confirmed cases to 248,870.

A further four Covid-related deaths were also reported, bringing the total number of deaths to 4,903.