'Six weeks' until Covid-19 cases drop to 100 per day

Prof Nolan says it is vital that people continue to follow public health guidelines so that restrictions can eventually loosen, and says wearing your mask correctly makes a big difference. Photo: Stephen Collins / Collins Photos

It will be six more weeks until Covid-19 cases hit 100 a day, according to the chair of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group.

Despite a decline in cases from the peak of January, health experts warn that it could be weeks before it drops enough for all restrictions can be eased.

Professor Phillip Nolan told RTÉ radio that people can be hopeful and optimistic of the trend in cases, but people need to be realistic too.

While Ireland’s case numbers and hospitalisations may have reduced, Prof Nolan says the numbers are still too high. 

“Last week, by every indicator, we had more disease and more severe disease than any point in 2020. We still have 170 people in ICU. That is an extraordinarily high number. So we’re just getting below the level we peaked in October.

“We’re at about the same stage we were in April 2020.” 

We’re still a good six weeks away - at least - from getting case numbers down close to 100 per day.

Prof Nolan said the country should be seeing 200-400 cases a day heading into March and 100-200 cases toward the end of March.

He said over the next two months people can expect to see people’s suppression of the virus and the increased protection of the vaccines will come together. 

“We have a good vaccination program being deployed, carefully and appropriately and effectively.” 

In terms of reopening more sectors of the country, Prof Nolan said, “If levels of disease decrease it gives government options… we need to be conscious of what our priorities are.

“If our children are our priority, then we adults need to make sacrifices in order to ensure that they can return to school.

"Those key priorities are set out and focused on education of young people and ensuring our health service has minimum levels of Covid to deal with so it can care for others," he said.

Prof Nolan says it is vital that people continue to follow public health guidelines so that restrictions can eventually loosen, and says wearing your mask correctly makes a big difference.

“If you double-mask, particularly if you double-mask carefully, it does give added protection. That protection would only be necessary, frankly, if you’re forced into close proximity to other people.

"What is more important is with one mask or two, you still should keep your distance," he said.

While it is not completely necessary to double-mask, Prof Nolan highlights the importance of ensuring your first mask fits well.

Speaking at yesterday’s briefing, Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Dr Ronan Glynn said he was "cautiously optimistic about the epidemiological situation across the country."

"This positive momentum has been achieved through the dedication of people across the country in recent weeks.

"However, incidence and mortality rates are still very high, and the significant risk of community transmission of the virus remains, especially for those most vulnerable to Covid-19 infection."

Dr Glynn said it remained "of vital importance" that people continue to stay at home and to work from home where at all possible.