‘Hard and fast’ lockdown could see return to normality by St Patrick’s Day 

While vaccines brought hope, in the best-case scenario it was likely to be October or November next year by the time a national vaccination programme is rolled out, according to Professor Anthony Staines

 A “hard and fast” lockdown could see society return to normality by St Patrick’s Day and stave off the long-term social and economic damage of repeated lockdowns.

That’s according to DCU Professor Anthony Staines, a member of the Independent Scientific Advocacy Group (ISAG), which is advocating for greater co-operation between governments north and south of the Irish border to tackle Covid-19.

The present strategy of rolling lockdowns until a vaccination programme is implemented was an “expensive” one that did not provide any certainty to businesses struggling to survive, he said.

Professor Staines urged people to limit their contacts over the festive period and turn down invitations for social gatherings.

If people were planning to visit elderly parents or vulnerable family members, they should consider isolating and avoiding social contacts between now and then. Family visits on Christmas Day should also be staggered and limited in time and all precautionary measures should be taken, he advised.

I’m terrified that we will see a whole bunch of elderly people around the country in the new year, who have been visited by their nearest and dearest with the best will in the world and who are now critically ill. And that’s not what anyone wants to remember Christmas for

The deteriorating Covid-19 situation in Northern Ireland presented a critical window of opportunity for both the Irish and Northern Irish governments to work together on an all-island strategy and plan to contain the virus, he said.

“We’re sending paramedics up to help them and we’ll probably be taking patients from the north for ventilation shortly,” Professor Staines said.

“Some level of cross border co-operation would be really helpful,” he added.

While vaccines brought hope, in the best-case scenario it was likely to be October or November next year by the time a national vaccination programme is rolled out.

Professor Anthony Staines: Government could opt for a “hard and fast” lockdown of eight to ten weeks to suppress infection levels. Picture: Denis Minihane

In the meantime, instead of "reacting" to rising infection rates, the Government could opt for a “hard and fast” lockdown of eight to ten weeks to suppress infection levels and see a return to normality by St Patrick’s Day, he said.

“We’re talking about eight to ten weeks to get back to normal,” he said, adding that quarantine airport hotels could help to safely manage people travelling into the country.

The lockdown would be similar to that in the early days of the pandemic and schools would remain closed until the end of January, he said.

“Keeping kids home from school will help to close down the spread of the virus,” Professor Staines said.

“This is all about coming in hard and fast. It would be a lockdown much more like the lockdown in March rather than what we have now,” he added.

The public health expert is also one of several European scientists, medics and academics to call for better co-ordination of the Covid-19 response across Europe describing it as “disastrous” and “chaotic” to date.

In a paper published in the medical journal, The Lancet, the group of experts proposed a more streamlined European approach to get Covid-19 numbers down to one new case per 100,000 population per day.

On the prospect of getting numbers to this low level, Professor Staines said: “It depends on what price you’re willing to pay for suppression or for carrying on as we are”.

While waiting for a vaccination programme to be rolled out, the European Commission, he said, could lead a more co-ordinated strategy to get ahead of the virus and minimise the costs to lives and jobs.