'Strong possibility' UK will fail to get trade deal with EU

British prime minister Boris Johnson in Brussels.

British prime minister Boris Johnson has warned there is a "strong possibility" that the UK will fail to broker a trade deal with the EU, as he urged the public to prepare for the end of the transition period.

His counterpart, EU president Ursula von der Leyen said it would be "difficult" to reach a post-Brexit trade agreement, the European Union's top official said as she stepped up no-deal planning.

Ms von der Leyen set out plans for emergency legal agreements to keep planes flying to the UK and lorries crossing Europe the day after a dinner with Boris Johnson failed to produce a decisive breakthrough.

Negotiations are still ongoing but the end of the transition is near. There is no guarantee that if & when an agreement is found it can enter into force on time. We have to be prepared including for not having a deal in place on 1 January. Today we present contingency measures ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/FQ4Urn9YUC

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) December 10, 2020

The European Commission president and the prime minister have agreed that a decision on the future of the negotiations would be taken by the end of the weekend.

Speaking in Brussels, Taoiseach Michéal Martin, said an agreement was "within reach".

"It makes sense to get a trade deal. I'm very aware of the difficulties around a level playing field, the dispute resolution mechanism and fisheries," he said as he arrived at the summit.

"I didn't expect a breakthrough last evening. 

"I think the fact that they met for quite a lengthy period of time and that frank exchange of views in itself is a good thing, and the fact that the negotiators are mandated to go back in again and try to break the logjam."

But Sweden's prime minister, Stefan Lofven, was "gloomy", saying: "As far as I can hear there is no progress made in the recent days."

Lithuania's president, Gitanas Nauseda, said the EU needs to be ready to put no-deal plans in place "from the first minute" on January 1.

The EU set out proposals for contingency agreements if a trade deal is not in place when the current arrangements expire at the end of the month, including on air routes, aviation safety and road transport.

British prime minister Boris Johnson in Brussels for a dinner with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday.

One of the four measures proposed by Mrs von der Leyen is for EU fishing boats to continue to enjoy access to UK waters during 2021, an area which has been one of the main sticking points in the trade negotiations.

At a summit of EU leaders on Thursday, Mrs von der Leyen said: "I had a very long conversation yesterday night with prime minister Boris Johnson.

"It was a good conversation but it is difficult. We are willing to grant access to the single market to our British friends – it is the largest single market in the world.

But the conditions have to be fair. They have to be fair for our workers and for our companies, and this fine balance of fairness has not been achieved so far."

In response to the EU's proposals, Downing Street again stressed the importance of taking back control of the UK's waters.

The prime minister's official spokesman said: "We would never accept arrangements and access to UK fishing waters which are incompatible with our status as an independent coastal state."

But the spokesman said the UK would "look closely" at the mini-deals proposed by the EU if there is no overall agreement.

The fact that negotiators Lord Frost and Michel Barnier were meeting again on Thursday at least gave some cause for hope.