Cork North-West set to be straight shootout between ‘Big Two’ parties

The dogfight for the third seat in this mostly rural constituency could prove crucial for the overall picture, writes Juno McEnroe.

This constituency is likely to be a microcosm of the national picture for the general election.

This is farming country and the successes (or otherwise failures) of Agriculture Minister Michael Creed will, in part, influence voters, aswill geography in the three-seater. Cork North-West stretches from the borders of Kerry and Limerick right in towards Cork City.

There is huge pressure on Fianna Fáil to hold its two seats for Aindrias Moynihan, a returning first-time TD, and Michael Moynihan, the party’s chief whip.

“For Fianna Fáil to be in government, it has to win the second seat here,” said a party figure candidly.

However, while Fine Gael only had one TD here since the last election in 2016, it stands a real chance of taking back a second seat, once held by Áine Collins. If her supporters back John Paul O’Shea, Creed’s running mate and a former Independent, the cumulative vote could swing a victory in both the north and the south of the constituency for Fine Gael.

Many constituency activists admit this is a head-to-head between the two major parties and, unlike most other constituencies, other groups and candidates are seen as a very long shot forin wresting one of the three seats from them.

This may explain why there are just eight candidates running this time.

Nonetheless, neither of the two big parties are taking the race for granted, and instead are talking up being underdogs, a tactic that often helps get the vote out.

There are disadvantaged pockets in Gaeltacht areas here, including Muskerry, but overall unemployment is low. A lot hinges on the farming sector, multinationals, and the road infrastructure linking other counties and, of course, Cork City.

One of the biggest demands is the Cork-Limerick motorway, the M20, which has got the green light under the Government’s Project Ireland 2040. Work on the long-promised €300m Macroom bypass, expected to cost , is also under way.

Both of these projects go towards supporting commuter and the bigger towns in the constituency, including Ballincollig and Macroom, as well as market towns such as Kanturk, Charleville, and Newmarket.

Another problem is the lack of housing in Ballincollig, as well as demands fora third secondary school in the town. With a young and growing population, this community may not backthe incumbents, as there are also concerns about Garda services for the town.

Fine Gael sources also admit that families have complained about the lackof special needs services, including supports and resources for St Joseph’sFoundation, which helps those with intellectual disabilities and is based in Charleville.

All eyes in farming households are focused on the upcoming Common Agriculture Payments deal and what it could bring for the beef and dairy sectors. However, there is also frustration among farmers, after the handling of the fodder crisis and the latest beef price war with factories.

And it may seem impressive to be on the national and international stage, as the AMr Creed has been, but Fine Gael sources privately worry whether Fianna Fáil’s work on the ground at home will beat them.

“It is all very well to be out in China signing [beef] deals, but you are leaving the back door open at home,” confided a party insider.

Observers in Cork North-West say first preferences will be crucial.

This is for a There are a number ofreasons for this. With such a small field of candidates, there will be little or no surplus votes, and few transferswith such a small field of candidates.

Moreover, it really is a dogfight between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil that will likely mirror a national trend and indicate whether Leo Varadkar’s party will get a third successive term or whether the winds of change will put Fianna Fáil back into Government Buildings.

On the campaign trail with Ciaran McCarthy of the Social Democrats in the Cork North-West constituency.

In general, while many would agree that Cork North-West has moved away from its conservative profile, this election will be an old-style dust-up between the traditional two big parties.

Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, the Greens, and Aontú are fielding candidates, but they are unlikely to will not get the votes needed for a seat.

Expect the fight for the third seat to be in the north of the constituency between John Paul O’Shea and Michael Moynihan, with votes in Charleville seen as key to a win.

In conclusion, Cork North-West is on a knife-edge and whichever party tips the scales and gets that second seat not only adds to their leader’s tally, but denies their opponent an extra TD. This makes it is a key battleground in Election 2020.