No-deal Brexit a ‘disruptor’ to Irish economy
The Government have warned that a no-deal Brexit will be a “fundamental disruptor” to the all-island economy.
It has also emerged that that only a small fraction of a €300m emergency loan scheme has been drawn down by firms as the Brexit deadline possibility of no-deal draws closer.
Online shoppers are also being warned to expect extra customs charges to be applied to goods ordered over the internet from Britain, should it crash out of the EU.
These were some of the warnings and findings by officials as part of an update for Government on contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit.
While EU-UK talks continue on the withdrawal agreement and the so-called ‘backstop’, the Government is preparing for a worst-case scenario come the October 31 Brexit deadline.
A 100-page report for Cabinet on no-deal Brexit plans warned that tariffs and checks on goods travelling across the Irish Sea would be “disruptive”. The UK ‘landbridge’, used to transit Irish goods to mainland Europe, may also be subject to “severe delays”, while there would also be “significant disruption” to the all-island economy.
Details revealed in the report show that as of the end of June, just €31.7m, or a 10th of the Government’s €300m emergency Brexit loan scheme had been drawn down.
The Government are ramping up Brexit warnings, with just over 100 days before Britain could leave the EU without a deal.
Figures released also show that 400 additional Revenue staff have been recruited for customs checks, while 190 agriculture officials and 59 extra health workers have been trained for Brexit.
Facilities set up at Dublin Port for a no-deal Brexit now include a 6,000 sq m warehouse for 13 inspection bays. Parking for 128 heavy goods vehicles is also in place. Temporary and permanent sites have also been set up at Rosslare Port.
Tánaiste Simon Coveney said Ireland must prepare for the realities of ‘no-deal’.
“Make no mistake, a no-deal Brexit is an ugly prospect,” he said. “It will put many businesses and many people under a great deal of strain. It will put political relationships on this island under a great deal of strain.
It will be a fundamental disruptor to the all-island economy as it functions today, seamlessly, as a reinforcer for the peace process. There is no sugar-coating of that message.
A no-deal would be difficult for communities in border counties and the North, he said, noting that 30% of the North’s exports come to the south. Overall, some 50% of goods going to the North also come through Dublin as a landbridge.
Mr Coveney added: “In a no-deal scenario, while we will prevent physical border infrastructure, undoubtedly the imposition of tariffs and the need to protect the integrity of the single market — to keep Ireland in the single market we have been creating — will provide a disruption to all-island trade.”
As the Halloween deadline draws nearer, the Government is trying to manage the twin responsibility to protect the EU single market and goods going into it from Ireland, as well as the peace process and sensitive concerns about the border. This comes ahead of the appointment of a new British prime minister later this month, a move which is expected to see renewed attempts by London to overhaul the withdrawal agreement.
EU Affairs Minister Helen McEntee said it was about “damage limitation” now.
The Government faced continued questions yesterday about how it intends to operate checks and tariffs to suit EU demands, but refused to give any specifics.
Mr Coveney, while insisting nobody would “be left behind”, said he did not want to provide a “running commentary” on EU talks.
A bit like Groundhog Day
In essence, this did seem a bit like Groundhog Day, with events repeating themselves. Last March saw the same daunting questions surrounding the Brexit talks: Would there be border checks? How would livestock be transported across Ireland from other states or vice versa? Then, a six month extension on the talks was agreed.
This week the same questions and dilemmas abound. The 100-pagereport to Government yesterday was an update on actions taken in that elapsed period.
Preparations are under way in the ports and airports; extra staff are being hired; businesses are being encouraged to contact Revenue, and EU-UK talks are set to continue. We were here before and now, with just over 100 days until a crash-out Brexit, here we are again.
This was one of the newer admissions by the Government yesterday, that essentially some checks or tariffs of sorts or “actions” as Tánaiste Simon Coveney quipped, will be necessary with a disorderly Brexit. This is significant and a first.
And it sounds like the pressure is coming from Brussels to find a solution that guarantees any goods coming from Ireland do not breach EU market rules or standards. The mechanics of this are being teased out between Dublin and Brussels.
But certainly, the confirmation will now open the pandora’s box on just where and how customs or SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary) checks will take place.
Officials have admitted that trucks coming through Irish ports will have to pre-register and submit a customs declaration “well in advance” of boarding boats.
Failure to do so could prevent drivers and their goods sailing. This suggests a trusted trade system may operate. Talks with the EU also involve how customs tariffs would apply
The Government is ramping up its no-dealBrexit warnings, in part because it wants businesses and the public to register and check if they need to prepare. According to ministers, at least 30,000 UK drivers here have yet to register for an Irish licence.
Furthermore, less than half of the 80,000 estimated firms that trade with the UK annually have registered with Revenue. Toimprove on these figures, the Government will run a public awareness campaign.
Knowing that attention will turn to London in the coming days ahead of a Conservative vote on a new British prime minister, the Government has used the closing days of this Dáil term to make the loudest noises possible aboutno-deal Brexit fears.
Mr Coveney has also let it be known that Iveagh House and ministers are preparing for a fresh round ofnegotiations alongside the EU with whoever takes up residence in Number 10 Downing Street. Winning the public’s support is half the battle.
