Poll predicts General Election loss for FF in Donegal

In a further blow to Fianna Fáil, the party's first preference votes would plunge to 19% – down a third from from 2007 – in Donegal South West if a General Election was called, according to a Red C survey.

Sinn Féin would do well with 31% of voters saying they would elect the party candidate – up 10% on their previous performance.

Labour would also make good gains in a General Election, with a first-preference share at 18%, up 3%.

The poll also showed Labour leader Eamonn Gilmore is the choice of almost half (46%) of all voters in the constituency when asked who would make the best Taoiseach.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny was backed by 18% while Taoiseach Brian Cowen managed to secure just 13% of the support.

Sinn Féin Senator Pearse Doherty will trounce Fianna Fail in the Donegal South West by-election, the opinion poll suggested today.

The Red C survey shows Mr Doherty taking 40% of first-preference votes – more than double Fianna Fáil’s Senator Brian O’Domhnaill, who is expected to take just 19%.

If correct, the result would deliver a potentially lethal blow to the Government, which is struggling to keep control of the Dáil with a razor-thin majority.

Voters finally go the polls on November 25 to replace the seat left empty by Fianna Fáil’s Pat “The Cope” Gallagher after he was elected an MEP 18 months ago.

Mr Doherty forced the by-election by taking the Government to the High Court.

The Red C poll predicts Mr O’Domhnaill will suffer relatively poor transfers in what has always been considered a Fianna Fáil stronghold.

He is unlikely to even trouble Sinn Féin on the second count, it predicted.

Fine Gael’s Barry O’Neill and Labour’s Frank McBrearty Junior are set to take a similar share of the first-preference vote – 15% and 14% respectively.

But transfers suggest Mr McBrearty, who was framed by the Garda for a murder that never happened, will end up ahead.

The poll was commissioned by bookmakers Paddy Power, who has slashed its odds on Mr Doherty seizing victory in Donegal South West.

A random sample of 510 adults aged 18 and over in the constituency were interviewed by telephone between November 12 and 16.

Red C said the margin of error is estimated to be up to 4.4% above or below, with a 95% confidence level.