Ceasefire watchdog: Peace process not unravelling

The peace process in the North is not unravelling despite dissident republican efforts to drag the region back to violence, a ceasefire watchdog body said today.

Loyalist paramilitaries are also beginning to face up to the issue of decommissioning their weapons in the face of Government threats to end the amnesty on handing over guns, according to the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC).

While the commission’s latest report examines paramilitary activity in the six months just before the recent dissident murders of two soldiers and a policeman, it comments on the impact of the incidents on the political process.

“The current ongoing violence is an attempt to destroy the peace process and return the community to the period of the violent struggle from which it has so painfully and relatively recently emerged,” it stated.

“Dissident republicans are attempting to deflect the PSNI from maintaining community policing and so disrupt the increasing community acceptance of normal policing.

“There is also a hope that sufficient violence would provoke an over-reaction by the authorities which would play into their hands.

“In our view however this is a challenge and a testing of the peace process by the people who have always been violently opposed to it. It does not represent an unravelling of the peace process.”

In March the Real IRA shot dead sappers Mark Quinsey, 23, of Birmingham, and Patrick Azimkar, 21, from London, outside Massereene Army barracks in Antrim. Two days later the Continuity IRA claimed responsibility for killing Pc Stephen Carroll, 48, in Craigavon, Co Armagh.

The commission said the widespread and unified condemnation of the killings, which saw Sinn Féin Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness standing shoulder to shoulder with the Chief Constable of the PSNI Hugh Orde, had reinforced the political settlement in the region.

“It remains imperative to do everything possible to encourage widespread community support for the police, which is of course desirable in its own right and also so that information on dissident activity is available to them,” it said.

“The unanimity of condemnation of the murders across the political spectrum throughout the UK and Ireland, and particularly by the parties in the Northern Ireland Assembly, helps serve this end and has been a striking indication of the robustness of the peace process.”

The commission was set up by the British and Irish governments in 2004 to monitor paramilitary groups and the general security situation in the North.

In their 21st report, the commissioners noted the increasing threat posed by dissident factions, both in terms of politically motivated violence and general criminality.

However, they claimed the Provisional IRA as an organisation remained inactive and was committed to a political strategy, even though some of its members do continue to indulge in criminal activity for their own ends.

“We note the strong public stand against politically motivated violence taken by leading figures in the republican movement after the murders in early March 2009,” the report added.

The commission said it had found no evidence to support claims that Semtex explosives used by dissidents in recent attacks had been sourced from the PIRA.

In regard to the main loyalist paramilitary groups – the UDA and UVF – the commission said there was a growing acknowledgement among their leaders that the decommissioning would have to be addressed.

The British government has threatened to end the long running amnesty from prosecution for handing in weapons this summer if progress was not made.

Of the mainstream UDA, the commission said: “We do see some signs that the challenge of decommissioning of weapons is now being faced as it had not been hitherto and that there has been some movement towards the point where it might be possible to act.

“However, because of the state of opinion in the UDA, the uncentralised nature of the leadership and their search for a quid pro quo for decommissioning, it is somewhat difficult to judge what turn events may take and when.”

The commission said the UVF was moving toward an end point in a relatively managed way.

In regard to that organisation handing over guns, it noted: “We believe that some in the leadership increasingly recognise that the UVF must tackle decommissioning, especially since the February 2010 (or possibly autumn 2009) deadline on the continuation of decommissioning legislation which the Secretary of State has announced. It will soon be apparent whether it has become a deliverable option.”

Members of Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) are due to carry out a further phase of their work in the North in the coming weeks.

The IMC report said loyalists continued to engage in criminality and questioned why parts of the UDA appeared to be continuing to recruit members, albeit on an ad hoc basis.

Reacting to the report’s publication, the North's Secretary of State Shaun Woodward warned that dissident republicans would not be allowed to derail progress.

“The IMC make clear that the current ongoing violence from so-called dissident republicans is an attempt to destroy the peace process,” he said.

“Their actions have no significant support in the community. The political process continues to work for the benefit of Northern Ireland through the Assembly and Executive.

“The completion of devolution will do more than anything to undermine the dissidents and will provide a firm foundation for Northern Ireland to move forward.”

On the prospect of loyalist decommissioning, Mr Woodward said: “Foot-dragging on decommissioning must end and I welcome the comments by the IMC on how both the leadership of the UDA and the UVF are looking at this issue.

“However, the government’s position is very clear. When I renewed the decommissioning amnesty for the final time in February, I asked the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning for a further report on progress towards decommissioning.

“That report is due in August and if there has not been substantial progress I will bring an end to the decommissioning legislation.”