Poll: FG to lose third seat in Mayo

Fine Gael would struggle to take three of the five Dáil seats in County Mayo if an election were to be held in the morning, according to an opinion poll commissioned by the Western People.

The poll, conducted by Red C at 32 different points in Mayo from March 5 to March 11, also reveals that Independent candidate, Dr Jerry Cowley, is in grave danger of losing his seat to Fianna Fáil newcomer, Dara Calleary.

The other four outgoing candidates - Michael Ring, Enda Kenny, Beverley Flynn and John Carty - are all returned with Mayo football manager, John O’Mahony, failing to make a telling impact for Fine Gael.

The Ballaghaderreen man only garners 4% of the overall poll, 1% less than his party colleague, Michelle Mulherin, who also fails to be elected.

Westport-based Deputy Michael Ring tops the poll for Fine Gael with a staggering 21% of the first preference vote, which allows him to comfortably exceed the quota.

His party leader, Enda Kenny, also exceeds the quota with 20% of the vote but the transfers of both men fail to elect either O’Mahony or Mulherin. Instead it is Beverley Flynn who benefits most from the surplus of Ring and Kenny and she is the third candidate to be elected, although she does not reach the quota.

She takes 11% of the poll as do Fianna Fáil’s John Carty and Dara Calleary. The two men take the final seats in the constituency

The prospect of electing a first ever Mayo-based Taoiseach in Castlebar’s Enda Kenny has resulted in a dramatic surge in Fine Gael support from 38% in 2002 to a massive 50% now.

But with FG member John O’Mahony and Michelle Mulherin languishing precariously close to the bottom of the popularity poll, the dramatic rise in his own personal vote points to a serious deficiency in the party’s overall vote management strategy with FG failing to regain the third seat they held prior to polling day in 2002.

Enda Kenny emerged strongly from the satisfaction ratings with 52% of the electorate in Mayo expressing the view that they were either ‘very satisfied’ or ‘quite satisfied’ with his performance.

Westport-based FG deputy Michael Ring is literally head and shoulders above all the other candidates in terms of the positive impression he is making on the general public.

Mr Ring led the way with a 65% satisfaction rating, including 39% who claimed they were ‘very satisfied’ with his performance.

Independent candidate, Beverley Flynn, was the next strongest candidate after Ring and Kenny with 48% of the electorate expressing satisfaction with her performance.

In the area of responsibility for the Corrib Gas problem the public in Mayo point the finger of blame at the Government.

A total of 44% of the 511 people surveyed believe that the Government is responsible for the crisis that has developed in Erris in the last two years with 30% laying the blame at the doorstep of the local protesters.

Only 16% believe that the company behind the project - Shell E&P - are responsible while the remaining 11% claim that ‘others’ are to blame, although it is not clear who these ‘others’ actually are.

For more analysis, click on the Western People newspaper link below.