Fianna Fáil and PDs begin coalition talks

Formal negotiations to establish a coalition Government are beginning today following final confirmation of the make-up of the new parliament, more than a week after the general election.

An independent candidate was identified as the winner of the last of the 166 seats in the Dail on Saturday night after a marathon recount in the Wicklow constituency.

But the delayed figures will make little difference to Bertie Ahern’s continuing need for outside support to ensure a parliamentary majority.

Fianna Fail has ended up with 81 seats, just two short of an overall majority of its own.

The chances are that the Taoiseach will opt to go back into power with the Progressive Democrats, led by Tanaiste Mary Harney, which have kept Fianna Fail in office for the past five years.

The PDs last week authorised Ms Harney to have talks with Mr Ahern about a renewed coalition.

But even though the smaller party doubled its Dail strength against all the odds in the election, they will, in reality, go into the new discussions in a weaker position than before.

The fact is that this time, Mr Ahern has an alternative source of Dail support, if he so chooses - many of the record 14 elected non-aligned members of the house formerly had connections with Fianna Fail and could probably be relied upon to plump for Mr Ahern in any awkward Dail divisions.

At the same time, the Taoiseach and most of his ministers are believed to favour a continued PD dimension in the Government, rather than depending on the potentially more unreliable endorsement of a rump of independents.

The decision has to be taken in time for the June 6 first meeting of the newly-elected Dail, when Mr Ahern will again be proposed for the post of Taoiseach - and is certain to secure the job one way or another.

:: Fine Gael is to meet over two days - tomorrow and Wednesday at a location outside Dublin, when a decision is expected to be taken on the successor to Michael Noonan as leader.

Mr Noonan quit when the extent of the Fine Gael poll defeat - they dropped more than 20 seats - became clear.

So far, just one party figure, Carlow-Kilkenny representative Phil Hogan, has confirmed he intends to contest the position, although a number of other candidates are set to appear at the meeting.