Trimble re-election in the balance

David Trimble was today facing an uphill task to be re-elected Northern Ireland’s First Minister in a knife-edge vote at the Stormont Assembly.

The Ulster Unionist leader could fall one vote short of the 30 he needs to get back into office after one of his critics announced she would be opposing his return.

East Derry backbencher Pauline Armitage declared: ‘‘I don’t have a problem with Mr Trimble personally, but I can’t support his policy.’’

Another Ulster Unionist rebel Peter Weir may also vote against his leader and plunge the executive and Assembly into a major new crisis.

Prime Minister Tony Blair and the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern had believed last week’s ground-breaking move on IRA disarmament effectively cleared the way for long-term political stability.

But lingering unionist doubts about the republican movement’s commitment to the peace process could wreck Mr Trimble’s chances of returning as First Minister and possibly force the British Government to call new elections.

Under cross community voting procedures, Mr Trimble and nationalist SDLP minister Mark Durkan’s bid to be First and Deputy First Ministers must get the support of 50% plus one unionist MLAs and 50% plus one nationalist MLAs in tomorrow’s crunch vote.

Failure to elect either politician would leave Northern Ireland Secretary John Reid with the choices of suspending the institutions, calling fresh Assembly elections or amending legislation to elect First and Deputy First Ministers.

A British Government source insisted tonight: ‘‘No course of action has been decided upon but if a First and Deputy First Minister cannot be elected, the options are grim.

‘‘Suspension of the political institutions would be seen as an act of bad faith after the IRA’s historic move on decommissioning last week.

‘‘Elections are very real possibility but we haven’t committed ourselves to any course of action. Let’s see how things pan out.’’

It is believed if Assembly elections take place, MLAs could face a January poll - 15 months ahead of schedule.

Mr Weir was tonight refusing to give away his voting intentions.

However, sources close to him said as things stood, the North Down MLA was ‘‘not inclined’’ to give Mr Trimble his support.

‘‘He is involved in a series of consultations,’’ one source said.

‘‘I think it would be fair to say that he is leaning in Pauline’s direction right now but he has more people to talk to.’’

Mr Weir has had a turbulent history in the UUP since his election to the Assembly in 1998.

He lost the party whip for defying Mr Trimble in several Stormont votes and was also de-selected as the UUP’s Westminster candidate for North Down following a period of suspension from the party.

Unionists opposing Mr Trimble’s re-election were warned last night by SDLP minister Sean Farren if they voted against him, they would be demonstrating their concern for IRA decommissioning was ‘‘nothing short of hypocritical’’.

‘‘Through voting against the motion to elect a First and Deputy First Minister, they will have rejected the evidence from (disarmament body chairman) General de Chastelain and his commission that decommissioning has commenced.

‘‘In doing so they will have questioned his integrity, an integrity which is beyond doubt.

‘‘It will be clear that what they are fundamentally opposed to is a real partnership between our communities in the north and between north and south.

‘‘They will be turning their back on the views of the overwhelming majority of people in Northern Ireland and in doing so will be demonstrating their contempt for democracy.’’