Sinn Féin could make up the numbers on Eighth Amendment
If Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin want to change the law to allow unrestricted access to abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy if the Eighth Amendment referendum passes, they will have to rely on — and share the spotlight with — their arch enemy Sinn Féin to do so.
And even then, any Dáil vote on the potential post-referendum 12-week limit will come down to the wire, with the parliamentary division between those in favour of 12 weeks and those opposed likely to be as little as three votes, meaning the outcome remains far from clear.
The latest Irish Examiner poll of all 158 TDs in Leinster House, detailed in full today, shows that while there is almost complete support for a referendum to be held and a significant backing for a repeal vote, the same cannot be said for the key issue now hanging over the referendum debate.
According to the survey of all TDs over the past five days, when it comes to the crucial question of what will follow any referendum to remove the Eighth Amendment, 57 TDs are currently in favour of the 12-week rule; 75 are opposed, concerned, or unable to back it due to party policy; and 26 more have yet to express a view, in public at least.
The difference should be worrying for both Mr Varadkar and Mr Martin, both of whom have, to varying degrees staked their political futures not just on guiding the referendum over the line, but also ensuring a more liberal law is then introduced amid ongoing division within their own parties.
However, as both will at this stage know all too well, there is a potential, if unusual, game changer on the horizon.
Currently, Sinn Féin’s policy on abortion prohibits any support for the 12-week rule, with the party only in favour of abortion in cases of fatal foetal abnormalities, rape, incest, and when the mother’s life and physical or mental health is at risk.
However, should new Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald seek and win a vote to further liberalise the party’s existing policy in a likely ard fhéis vote sometime in April, 21 of the party’s 23 TDs are certain to back the 12-week rule, switching the balance of power marginally in favour of the law.
In such a scenario, the latest Irish Examiner poll shows 78 TDs would be in favour of 12 weeks, just two short of a majority; 53 including pro-life Sinn Féin TDs Peadar Toibin and Carol Nolan opposed; and 26 still to express a view.
Of those 26, it is widely expected between 18 and 22 are leaning towards opposing 12 weeks, making the likely outcome of a Dáil vote at this stage at 78 in favour and 71 to 75 opposed.
The remaining five to nine votes will be crucial to the ultimate outcome. But what is clear at this point is that unless Sinn Féin changes its policy, the 12-week rule will not pass — marking the first of Ms McDonald’s real tests, and opportunities, as party leader.
What Mr Varadkar and Mr Martin — neither of whom have ever been shy of highlighting Sinn Féin’s murky past while definitively ruling out ever entering government with them — will make of the findings is anyone’s guess. But with Fine Gael’s 50 TDs split 20 in favour, 13 opposed, and 17 unknown, and Fianna Fáil’s 45 TDs even more at odds, with just eight supporting Mr Martin, 30 opposed, and seven unknown, neither can afford to be picky.
In a statement last week, Ms McDonald gave the clearest indication yet that she wants to change her party’s abortion policy, saying Sinn Féin “will not be found wanting” on the issue.
Their long-time enemies may not ‘want’ them, but due to their own internal division, right now such support is the only option on offer.
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