30% drop in youth unemployment recorded in past two years

The number of young people who are out of work has fallen by almost a third in just two years, according to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office.

It found that, last month, there were 29,700 people aged 15-24 registered as unemployed. That compared to 42,100 in March 2015.

The youth unemployment rate of 13.9% last month was down from 17.3% just a year earlier.

Alan McQuaid, an economist with Merrion, said that while youth unemployment remained too high, a rate of 13.9% last month compared to 17.3% a year earlier “is encouraging and augurs well for the months ahead despite Brexit worries”.

Overall, the CSO figures showed there were 141,400 people out of work in March, down from 181,200 in the same month last year.

That means the unemployment rate for March was 6.4%, significantly less than half the peak of 15.1% hit during the financial crisis. Mr McQuaid pointed out that Ireland’s jobless rate compares with a current Eurozone average of 9.5%, which is a near eight-year low.

“There was an average increase in the numbers at work last year of 56,400, up from 49,700 in 2015 and employment prospects look very good again in 2017 due to the continued strong economic growth, and notwithstanding the “Brexit” risks.

“We are looking for a net jobs rise of 45,000 this year. As regards unemployment, and based on the latest CSO figures, we are forecasting an average jobless rate in 2017 of 6.3% as against 7.9% in 2016 and 9.4% in 2015.”

His fellow economist, David McNamara of Davy, said at face value the headline data suggests Ireland’s recovery phase is almost complete and that unemployment could be below 5% by the end of 2017 at the current pace: “However, a broad range of indicators suggest that the recovery has further to run — employment is still 5.4% below peak and labour force participation is only now beginning to recover as net migration turns positive.

Moreover, census data showing the population is 90,000 higher than previously estimated will probably lead to upward revisions to the unemployment rate. In short, we think the catch-up phase still has a couple of years left to run.”

Social Protection Minister Leo Varadkar said the latest figures show the recovery continues and people are returning to employment: “It’s particularly encouraging that we are already closing in on our 2020 target of 6% unemployment. However, we need to continue our strong focus on long-term unemployment which is why my Department will publish a new Strategy for Jobless Households later this year.”