Post-Brexit passport surge is likely to reach 1m in 2019

The number of British and Northern Ireland applications for Irish passports looks set to continue its dramatic post-Brexit rise, the Department of Foreign Affairs has predicted.

With year-to-date applications from Britain running 40% higher than the first nine months of 2015, an expected 115,205 will have been handled from the UK by year’s end.

That would represent a 15% increase over the 2015 total of just over 100,000 but the department estimates the figures will continue to grow.

It believes almost 176,400 passport applications will be received in 2019, over 50% more than its projection for 2016 and up over 75% on last year.

Applications from England, Scotland and Wales have already topped 53,200 so far in 2016, 15,200 more than the 38,039 handled in the first nine months of 2015.

A further 21% rise is projected by the Department of Foreign Affairs between this year and 2018, when nearly 63,500 are expected from across the Irish Sea.

This would rise to 67,500 in 2019, 47% more than the pre-Brexit era in 2015.

The number of applications from Northern Ireland, meanwhile, is projected to double from 54,380 last year to 108,858 in 2019, and to remain above 80,000 a year until 2022.

Already in the first nine months of 2016, 55,376 applications have been received from north of the border, up from 44,253 in the same period last year.

While these increases have been linked by the department to the UK’s decision to leave the EU in June’s referendum, they are matched by expected rises of similar proportions from within Ireland and elsewhere globally.

Overall, applications are expected to reach almost one million in 2019, the 967,100 total being 44% more than the 2015 figure of over 668,500 and 30% higher than the projected 2016 total of 745,711 applications.

The projections have prompted the Department of Foreign Affairs to consider setting up networks of agents in Ireland, Britain, the US and in Europe, where applicants could submit applications in person, rather than by post or online.

The department has indicated the nature of the role in a market sounding for provision of a Passport Service agent network.

“Demand is expected to continue to grow strongly due to demographic changes, continued increases in overseas travel, the wider use of the passport as an identity document and Britain’s decision to leave the EU,” it has advised prospective interested parties.

It envisages having a network of offices where applicants would provide the information to agents who would enter details directly into the service’s computer system.

Applicants’ documents would undergo initial checking and their photo would be taken, with all the application record data provided electronically to the Passport Service and related hard-copy documents delivered securely.

A six-day service is suggested, to include at least five hours opening on Saturdays, but it has been left to interested parties to suggest the number and location of agents.

While no firm decision has been made to advance the project to the seeking of tenders, the exercise suggests a strong chance it would materialise along the lines set out or with variations depending on feedback received by the department.