Combinations poser as numbers game in full play

As anyone who watched poll station counts in recent days will testify, politics is a numbers game. And that will only become more clear over the coming days as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil battle with numbers to avoid having to hook up together.

Leaving aside policy positions and practicalities, there are in theory five ways of creating a government with the required 79 seats to rule. Any of these could help avoid the scenes in 1989 and 1992 when no Taoiseach was nominated. It would stave off any further delay in proceedings when the Dáil resumes on March 10.

However, unless either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil swallows its pride and concedes it will have to cut a deal in some form, it appears there is no other option for any realistic government on the table.

(1) In theory, Fine Gael could form a majority government without turning to Fianna Fáil by cobbling together support from five separate groups.

With Enda Kenny’s party likely to be on 50 seats; Labour seven; unaligned Independents 14; the Independent Alliance six; the Social Democrats three; and the Greens two, an 82-seat rainbow coalition could be formed.

However Catherine Murphy, co-leader of the Social Democrats, whose three TDs meet today, has said the party is likely to rule out supporting either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil meaning the coalition would be a wafer-thin 79 unless another deal was sought from the two Healy Raes. And the prospect of a government based on at least 18 different deals is barely believable.

(2) Similarly, Fianna Fáil could also gain power without turning to Fine Gael, if it eats some humble pie previously described as toxic by leader Micheál Martin.

If Fianna Fáil’s expected 44 final seat count is added to Sinn Féin’s 24, the Independent Alliance’s six, the Social Democrats’ three, the Greens’ two and the Healy Raes’ two, an 81-seat majority could be reached.

However, it would be an extreme departure for Fianna Fáil’s leader to allow any deal with Sinn Féin; while Gerry Adams yesterday said this is a non-runner. However, a replacement of this combination with 14 unaligned Independents and seven Labour TDs would still be at least one TD short.

(3) Greens leader Eamon Ryan has floated the prospect of a coalition of left-minded parties: namely Fianna Fáil’s 44, Sinn Féin’s 24, Labour’s seven, the Social Democrats three, AAA/PBP’s six and the Greens’ two TDs combining to form an 86-seat majority. It seems fanciful at best.

(4) A continuation of the current Fine Gael-Labour government is technically possible through Fianna Fáil support from the opposition benches.

Fine Gael’s 50 seats, Labour’s seven, and Fianna Fáil’s 44 in opposition would give a substantial total of 101.

However, Labour, while happy to support Mr Kenny’s nomination as Taoiseach if it comes on March 10 when the Dáil resumes, it is reluctant to re-enter office and both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil continue to say they will not strike a deal with each other.

(5) Should a deal be struck, a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition would lead to a strong 94-seat majority government. Both parties officially say they are not contemplating such a move either in full or minority terms, so this could force another election.

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