Constituency profile: Tipperary

In 2012 the the Constituency Commission decided that 24 electoral divisions in the north of Tipperary, involving 10,953 identified voters, should be hived off into the new Offaly constituency, allowing the remainder of Tipperary to form one new five-seat constituency.

Three of the leading candidates in this behemoth constituency — Michael Lowry, Mattie McGrath, and Alan Kelly — have dominated the airwaves so far, but there is far more to this race that what appears on the surface.

The hiving off of the northern part of the county to Offaly is a blow to Mr Kelly, whose home patch has been ripped asunder. However, the minister, nicknamed AK-47, who believes “power is a drug”. is a formidable politician and is without question a force to be reckoned with. While his party’s numbers are down significantly, Mr Kelly should have more than enough done to see him home.

The county has previously been a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael stronghold but has also seen a solid Labour tradition too. Labour, which was founded in Clonmel, held seats in Tipperary North and Tipperary South at various points in the last century.

While it is almost certain Mr Lowry will top the poll, after that there are few certainties. Mr Lowry, despite his ongoing legal issues, is the perennial poll topper in these parts and the recent controversy about whether he would be acceptable to Fine Gael about a deal to form a government did him no harm at all.

For Fine Gael, the money has to be on junior agriculture minister Tom Hayes holding his seat. Noel Coonan looks likely to be the casualty here for Fine Gael, as we see the party only holding one seat this time.

Independent fire-brand TD Mattie McGrath, who is of course of disaffected Fianna Fáil stock, is also likely to hold his seat.

Fianna Fáil managed to secure two seats here in 2002. The party is running three councillors: Michael Smith, Roscrea; Siobhán Ambrose, Clonmel; and Jackie Cahill, Thurles. Mr Smith is the son of Michael Smith, the former minister and we reckon he has the best shot of reclaiming a seat for the party.

Nenagh councillor Séamus Morris is Sinn Fein’s candidate and he will aim to build on the party’s strong showing in the local elections. Five of its candidates were elected to the county council, but we don’t see Mr Morris making it this time.

For more election news, analysis and general banter join us HERE