Ireland faces shortage of up to 1,400 GPs in next 10 years

Ireland is facing a shortage of up to 1,380 GPs by 2025 unless urgent steps are taken to address the shortfall.
Ireland faces shortage of up to 1,400 GPs in next 10 years

The grim forecast is contained in a HSE report on medical workforce planning.

A predicted shortage of between 493 and 1,380 GPs was identified following a workforce planning exercise.

It recommends an annual increase in training places of between 50 and 110. If emigration were factored in, increased training places of between 75 and 138 per year, based on a 15% emigration rate among new specialists, would be required.

“All indicators point to an urgent requirement to plan for an expanded GP workforce. This will require increasing the training intake in to GP training programmes in the immediate term,” the report outlines.

It recommends the introduction of a number of recruitment and retention strategies, including a return-to-work programme for early GP leavers and greater support for flexible working hours.

Incentives to encourage GPs to work as close to the age of 70, measures to support rural practice and a retention strategy for GP trainees and graduates is also advised.

The report, entitled: Medical Workforce Planning - Future Demand for General Practitioners 2015-2025 also found that more than a third of doctors working as GPs are not on the Medical Council’s specialist register of general practitioners.

Data from the Medical Council, as of January 2015, shows 4,685 registered doctors who had worked in the previous 12 months listed general practice to be their primary area of practice.

Of these, 56% were on the specialist register, 38% were on the general register and 6% were on the trainee register. A number of doctors are flying in from overseas to fill short-term locum requirements.

Over the next decade the percentage of female GPs in the workforce is likely to rise from around 46% to 52%.

The report lays out the need for several further research analyses and investigations, including an analysis of plans to move chronic disease management from secondary to primary care.

The report also recommends: “A national register of GPs should be introduced to improve the availability and quality of data on the GP workforce.

“Data collection regarding various important aspects of GP care needs to be improved [for example data related to GP visitation rates].

“Further research into areas such as nurse-led care and the impact of IT on general practice should be carried out.”

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