CSO finds crime rate 30% higher than Garda records

Actual crime figures for 2011 were around 30% higher than official statistics, estimates indicate.

The failure of gardaí to record or classify these crimes meant that almost 75,000 offences were not captured in figures for that year.

The Central Statistics Office said it was “extremely concerned” at the level of non-recording and misclassification of crime — and warned it would repeat its audit every year to see if the situation has improved.

A major review of Garda data by the CSO was published at the same time as it released a backlog of quarterly crime reports.

These show an 8% increase nationally in both burglaries and assaults — driven by surges of 18% and 15% respectively in Dublin.

The CSO had suspended publication of these reports following a Garda Inspectorate investigation last November, which exposed serious flaws in the Garda recording of crime.

The CSO review of Garda data said that the 75,000 missing crimes in 2011 included:

• 6,400 assaults (38% more than recorded);
• 21,000 thefts (27% more);
• 12,300 public order incidents (25% more);
• 5,100 burglaries (18% more).

The estimated total number of crimes should have been almost 314,000, compared to the 239,000 recorded (30% higher).

Tim Lenehan of the CSO Crime Section said these figures were an extrapolation, and approximation, of an examination they conducted of non-recording and misclassification of crime.

Mr Lenehan said the non-reporting of crime was an “extremely serious issue” and added: “This analysis was based on 2011 data, so we’re not sure if there have been any improvements.”He pointed out Irish crime statistics were better than average, compared to other countries. “They don’t have the ability to produce this kind of analysis and in those that do, Ireland is pretty much the same,” he said. “In the UK it’s around 20%.”

Despite the problems, Mr Lenehan said the public “can still have trust in the figures”. He said this included the 2014 and 2015 figures - so long as people read them with the “issues” in mind.

The quarterly figures show that to year ending March 2015 there was an 8% increase nationally in burglaries and assaults. The increase in assaults included a 31% jump in attempted murders and a 38% hike in threats of murder. There was also a 3% rise in sexual assaults. Homicides dropped by 40%, robberies by 7% and public order by 8%. Weapons offences were down 8%, but included a 9% increase in firearms possession and a 3% rise in shootings.

Garda Commissioner Nóirín O’Sullivan said that a data quality team will be set up and three pilots are under way.