Number of dole claimants at lowest level for four years, CSO reveals
According to the CSO, on a seasonally adjusted basis the number of people on the Live Register fell to 426,100 in May — 700 fewer than in April. In unadjusted terms, the total was 421,737, a decrease of 11,170 or 2.6% compared to the same month last year.
Alan McQuaid, chief economist with Merrion Stockbrokers, pointed out that the drop in the number of dole claimants in May was the 11th monthly fall in a row.
“However, increased emigration and people staying on longer in education are clearly factors that have contributed to the recent drop.”
He also pointed out that the number of long-term claimants on the Live Register increased from 186,063 in April to 191,997 in May.
“This figure remains far too high for comfort and something that Ireland’s troika creditors of the European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Mon-etary Fund have consistently highlighted needs to be tackled,” he said.
The CSO said the standardised unemployment rate in May remained at 13.7%. It has been at that level for four months in a row.
Nonetheless, Mr McQuaid said that, having peaked at 15.1% in Feb 2012, the gradual decline was a sign that the market had stabilised, “though it still remains a lot higher that desirable”.
“Recent developments on the jobs front have been encouraging, particularly last week’s quarterly national household survey, which saw a year-on-year net increase of 20,500 in employment in the first quarter of 2013 and a 29,900 annual fall in unemployment over the same period.
“The signs are that, slowly but surely, labour market trends are getting better, though it is likely to be a number of years before the jobless rate is back in single digits.”
Conall MacCoille of Davy Research, pointed out that the live register release from the CSO also provides data on numbers in government-run job activation programmes that are not included in the Live Register claimants data.
“Total numbers in these schemes were 86,042 in Apr 2013, up from 82,161 in Apr 2012.
“This is an increase of 3,881, or 4.7%, accounting for around one third of the decline in Live Register numbers in the year to April.”
