Twists, turns and false starts ... and Áras race has only begun

FOR a job that’s routinely criticised as powerless and pointless, there has been no shortage of applicants for the presidency — and no shortage of political intrigue and drama either.

When the deadline for nominations closes at noon today, there will be seven candidates in the race.

A month ago, it looked like there would be only five, as David Norris had withdrawn from the race and Dana hadn’t even entered it yet.

Things changed with Mr Norris dramatically announcing he was back in and Dana announcing her last-minute candidacy.

Both hoped they could secure enough support from TDs and senators — the backing of 20 Oireachtas members is required for a nomination — to get on the ballot paper. In Mr Norris’s case, that looked improbable, but not impossible, following the controversy over clemency letters he had written. Dana’s chances looked impossible, simply because she had left it so late.

In the end, both failed to secure the support they needed from TDs and senators.

So they opted for the alternative route — securing the support of four city or county councils.

The past 48 hours saw a number of councils meet to consider their bids and determine their fate.

In the end, Dana secured the support she needed with what seemed like relative ease, although one can be sure there was frantic lobbying behind the scenes.

Carlow and Roscommon councils agreed on Monday to nominate her. Donegal and Offaly did likewise by yesterday afternoon.

For Mr Norris, however, the past two days were much more of a roller coaster — like much of his campaign to date — but he showed remarkable resilience to keep going.

By Monday afternoon he had two councils — Fingal and Laois — and it was widely expected that South Dublin would go his way later that evening.

But South Dublin produced a surprise by voting narrowly not to support his bid — with six Fine Gael councillors voting against him rather than abstaining as expected.

Yesterday morning, Cork County Council also went against him, and it looked, again, like Mr Norris’s bid was doomed to fail.

But at lunchtime, his fortunes changed, when Waterford City Council came through.

Last night, his nomination was secure, after Dublin City Council also agreed to nominate him, giving him the four councils he needed.

Complete with the entry into the race of Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, what once looked like a relatively straightforward contest is now anything but.

The first reliable indication of the state of play came in a Sunday Business Post-Red C poll at the weekend which included Mr Norris and Dana.

The poll put Mr Norris in the lead on 21%, followed by Labour’s Michael D Higgins on 18% and Mr McGuinness of Sinn Féin on 16%.

Independent Mary Davis was on 13% together with Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell, while another Independent, Sean Gallagher, was on 11% and Dana was on 6%.

But the presidency will be decided on transfers, not first-preference votes, and in this respect, Mr Higgins looks like the early favourite, being the most transfer-friendly of the candidates and therefore the most likely to hoover up second preferences.

Millions of advertising posters will be unveiled in the coming weeks, raising the profiles of the candidates.

In addition, the debates between them may also change voters’ perceptions. And along the way, there may be a controversy or two — or several.