Nowhere left to turn — and nobody left to blame

ABANDONED by his coalition partners, left with less than half a Cabinet, and facing an ultimatum from the opposition to call an election by the end of the week, Brian Cowen has nowhere left to turn.

He will regret the botched reshuffle that led to his premature downfall.

But he may regret more his actions — or lack of them — in the wake of the Greens blocking that reshuffle.

By now, the main elements in his demise have been well documented. After winning a vote of confidence in his leadership at a meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party last Tuesday, the victory seemed to go to Mr Cowen’s head.

Against the objections of the Greens, he moved ahead with plans to replace a series of ministers who had indicated they would not contest the election.

It was this act of seeming hubris which most have pointed to as the chief cause of Mr Cowen’s downfall, and there’s no question that it was the catalyst.

But judging by his comments last week, when insisting it was perfectly within his right as Taoiseach to propose that reshuffle and seek to appoint new ministers, Mr Cowen may in years to come still feel justified in doing what he did.

He may regret the outcome but not his approach, instead stubbornly clinging to the view that it was his constitutional prerogative to replenish the Cabinet. In other words, there will probably be a large dose of self-justification.

By stark contrast, what he did after the botched reshuffle may haunt him for a long time.

On Thursday afternoon, after the Greens had blocked the reshuffle, but before Mr Cowen entered the Dáil to inform it of developments, he had a choice.

He could collapse the Government and trigger an immediate general election.

Or he could cave in completely to the Greens, reassign the vacant portfolios to the remaining members of Cabinet as the coalition partners had suggested, and bring forward the election date in line with their demands.

He chose the latter option, naming March 11 as polling day. Apart from passing the Finance Bill, the main reason for not collapsing the Government, it seems, is that he wanted to give Fianna Fáil as much time as possible to prepare for the election.

But it was a massive mistake — and arguably a worse decision than attempting to proceed with the reshuffle in the first case. The capitulation made him look like a lame-duck leader, and Fianna Fáil TDs knew it. The Taoiseach’s authority had been fatally undermined, and there was never going to be any recovery from that.

It’s just amazing that Mr Cowen doesn’t appear to have seen it.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, of course, and it’s easy to judge from afar. But a professional politician of his experience should have known once the Greens had blocked him that the situation was irretrievable. He should have told the coalition partners that their demands were unacceptable, and then immediately collapsed the Government and triggered the election.

Had he done so, Brian Cowen would still be leader of Fianna Fáil, and would still have the case to present his defence in the general election campaign. He could have gone down fighting, as a proud man of his political convictions would have wanted to do.

Instead, he made the fatal mistake of trying to limp on with a coalition partner that was half way out the door and a Cabinet that was at greatly reduced strength.

Of course, had he collapsed the Government last Thursday, it would have meant Fianna Fáil being thrown into an election campaign much sooner than desired.

But on this issue at least, he or his advisers should have been able to see around the political corners. From the time he became a lame-duck leader on Thursday afternoon, it was inevitable that his leadership would be under renewed threat. It was inevitable he wouldn’t survive.

And if that much was inevitable, it also surely followed that the Greens would not stay in government under a new Fianna Fáil taoiseach.

And yet, Mr Cowen seemed to believe that he could cling on, and bring his Government with him until March 11.

Instead, he is no longer party leader, and, as a result of the Greens’ decision yesterday, will have to bring forward the election date even further — into mid-February, most likely.

In other words, Fianna Fáil hasn’t benefited one iota from his decision to stay in Government last Thursday. The party can only now hope that a new leader will be able to produce some kind of an electoral miracle in the very short timeframe available to him or her.

As for Mr Cowen, he departs in the worst possible circumstances. Even after the botched reshuffle, it could have been different. But his political skillsdeserted him when he needed them most.