Poll authors defend adjustment method in face of party criticism
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have criticised the adjustments applied to last week’s poll which lifted the core support for the Labour Party from 22% up to 33% – making it by far the most popular party.
Those who carried out the research removed the “don’t knows” from the overall findings and gave Fianna Fáil an extra 1%, Fine Gael an extra 5% and Labour an extra 11%.
Fianna Fáil is understood to have had concerns about the methodology for some time and junior Minister Martin Mansergh raised concerns about it on RTÉ radio over the weekend.
But the adjustments were absolutely necessary according to Damian Loscher – managing director of IPOS/MRBI which carried out the poll.
He said the methodology is not particularly attractive for some parties and caused some “consternation” but said it was not a rogue poll.
“The adjustments are absolutely necessary and have been proven to be necessary,” he said.
They began using the adjustment method 10 years ago when the company noticed a pattern of discrepancies between what people said how they would vote and how they actually voted, Mr Loscher said.
“We adjusted the numbers and that adjustments has served us extremely well
“In recent elections our predictions have been absolutely bang on,” he said.
The next poll by IPOS/MRBI will use a different adjustment method which is likely to take into account the huge shifts in support for parties.
“Into the future, if party results continue to change and there continues to be significant shifts in political parties, the current model limits our ability to adjust to those changes.”
“I don’t think anybody is questioning whether Fianna Fáil is down, whether Fine Gael are down or whether Labour are up and are the number one party.
“The core data does reflect that,” said Mr Loscher.
“But the argument goes to the level of adjustment, it does attract quite a bit of consternation,” he said.
