Researchers develop ash forecasting system

AN advanced system for forecasting volcanic ash in Irish airspace has been developed by researchers at NUI Galway.

The forecast, offering six-day estimates for the location, size and make-up of dust clouds from Iceland, will allow potential air travellers to make informed travel decisions based on up-to-the-minute information.

“While the initial aim is not to replace the official London-based Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) for aviation decisions, it certainly provides an additional informative tool for potential air travellers,” said Prof Colin O’Dowd, director of the Centre for Climate and Air Pollution Studies at NUI Galway.

“The rapid development of the volcanic plume forecasting model to provide Ireland’s own capability of assessment and prediction is not only an excellent example of national collaboration and solidarity amongst key scientific partners in times of national need but also of innovation and a capacity for rapid response in a crisis,” he said.

When fully developed, the NUI model will be one of the most advanced in Europe, but the predictions would not be more than a week in advance.

“The longer you go into the future the greater the likelihood of a flaw” and to go beyond a week “would not be reliable enough, not for serious decision-making processes”, he said.

The model was built out of the combined skill of NUI Galway, Met Eireann and the Irish Centre for High End Computing in computational science.

All Irish airports will remain open until at least 6pm today, according to the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA).

The IAA said the cloud measures approximately 2,000 miles long and 1,200 miles wide and is positioned over the Atlantic from Greenland to the Iberian peninsula.

“This will continue to cause difficulty for some trans-Atlantic operations and operations into some areas of southern Europe,” the IAA stated.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has said there is no evidence of deterioration in air or water quality levels as a result of the volcanic ash.

Tourism Minister Mary Hanafin said Ireland was open for business despite a large plume of volcanic ash sitting off the Irish coast.

Yesterday, Ms Hanafin told the tourism industry to keep Ireland at the forefront of holidaymakers’ minds.

“We will take every opportunity to tell our potential visitors that Ireland is accessible and open for business – and will continue to be – by air, sea and through Britain,” she said.

Passengers planning to travel by air over the coming days are advised to regularly check their airline websites.

Aer Lingus and Ryanair were forced to cancel several flights due to the closure of Spanish airspace yesterday.

Ryanair said it expects airspace over Faro to be closed or restricted today, with a possibility of some disruptions to schedules to and from the Canary Islands, Granada, Jerez, Kerry, Knock, Malaga, Seville, Shannon and Tangier.