Cowen hardly likely to follow Reynolds’ line

IN 1992, when Albert Reynolds became taoiseach, he famously sacked eight ministers in a radical cabinet overhaul – and created a number of powerful enemies in the process.

Within certain quarters of Fianna Fáil, that purge is still regarded as a textbook political howler.

Reynolds may have decided he wanted allies around him at the cabinet table but, as the old political maxim goes, “you keep your friends close and your enemies closer”. By ditching his enemies in such cavalier fashion, Reynolds was simply ensuring trouble for his leadership down the line.

As one of Reynolds’ key lieutenants, Brian Cowen will remember the 1992 purge very well. He was one of those who actually benefited from it, being promoted to Cabinet for the first time. While he landed his first ministerial job thanks to the purge, he will also recall the damage it did to Reynolds. So Cowen is very unlikely to replicate it in the Cabinet reshuffle expected to be announced today.

Instead, the widespread belief around Leinster House is that Cowen will be conservative. The main changes are expected to take place in departments rather than personnel, as Mr Cowen seeks to prove the Government can adapt as necessary to tackle the economic and employment crises. He is, therefore, expected to restructure several Government departments.

He cannot ignore personnel issues completely, however, as he has two senior ministries to fill following the resignations of Defence Minister Willie O’Dea and Arts Minister Martin Cullen.

The likely promotion of two junior ministers to fill those slots will, in turn, create another couple of vacancies in the second-tier of Government. The Greens are set to benefit by getting a second junior minister. A new public sector minister is also expected to be announced, and that person may have the status of a “super junior” minister, meaning he or she can attend, but not vote at, Cabinet meetings.

Beyond that, however, personnel changes are expected to be relatively limited. The reshuffle certainly won’t be along the lines of Albert’s purge.

“The truth is that we are looking less at personnel changes in this reshuffle and more towards a possible reorganisation of Government departments,” Green Party senator Dan Boyle said in a weekend speech.

According to Boyle, the Greens have proposed “a number of suggestions” as to how the Government can be “re-shaped and re-focused”.

Today will tell the extent to which the Taoiseach is listening – either to his coalition partners or the country at large.

In short, if he is to gain any sort of a boost from the reshuffle – in terms of enhanced Government stability or increased public popularity – at the very least the Taoiseach has to:

* Address the lack of confidence in Tánaiste Mary Coughlan, who is regarded as out of her depth at the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment.

* Tackle the impression that the Government is not doing enough to combat the unemployment crisis.

* Give the appearance that the Cabinet will be revitalised by the infusion of “new” talent.

* Keep coalition partners the Greens satisfied.

* Keep his own backbenchers happy.

Taking the points in order, it seems certain that, while Ms Coughlan will be retained as Tánaiste, she will be moved from her current ministry or her portfolio will be significantly amended.

For certain, the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment will be restructured. Several Government sources agree that this is the big change on the cards.

Ms Coughlan has already spoken of the likelihood of her department being chopped up, with some of its functions – such as employment and job training – assigned elsewhere.

Employment may go to the Department of Social Affairs, while training may go to Education.

Such a move would also address the second point, namely giving the impression that the Government is serious about tackling the unemployment crisis. Up to now, rightly or wrongly, the Government’s response has been seen as inept.

Thirdly, the Taoiseach has to convince the public that his reshuffled Cabinet will be more dynamic and effective. If he keeps his changes to a minimum, it’s hard to see how he can do that.

He may, therefore, hope that the restructuring of the departments will give the Government the fresh, new look it so desperately requires.

Finally, Mr Cowen has to keep both the Greens and his own backbenchers happy. The Greens want one of the vacant junior ministerial slots for Ciaran Cuffe. As of last night, all the signs were that they would get it. But this necessarily means one less position for Fianna Fáil.

As ever with a reshuffle, not everybody’s going to be happy.