That’s a wrap for Three Wise Guys

WELL, there was certainly a Mary, but whether the main party leaders represented the Three Wise Men is anyone’s call.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, Labour leader Eamon Gilmore and Green Party deputy Mary White had gathered on the Leinster House lawn to switch on the Oireachtas Christmas tree lights, and as the chill set in the assembled crowd members counted their blessings – at least it wasn’t Jedward.

The tree sparkled in glorious excitement as the Dublin gospel choir boomed out “Oh, Happy Day!” and “Walking In A Winter Wonderland” as even the usually downcast Mr Cowen seemed to momentarily lose himself in the merriment of the occasion.

Then the seasonal ceremony was over and it was back to reality as the mood music suddenly shifted to “Oh, Budget Day!” and “Walking In A Winter Blunderland”.

Confusion over what exactly the Government and unions had actually agreed to regarding public sector pay continued to fall all around like faint specks of snow.

It was deal, or no deal, depending on who you listened to in the buzzing corridors of Leinster House.

But one thing was crystal clear – no one really understood how the proposal to swap 12 days of unpaid leave for a no pay cut promise in the public sector would actually work.

In many ways it resembled Winston Churchill’s assessment of Soviet foreign policy in the 1930s: “A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.”

The union chiefs were swaggering around like they’d pulled off a little coup with the unpaid leave wheeze.

But the Taoiseach was clearly nursing a bruised ego over the consensus view he had caved in to the demands of SIPTU.

In the Dáil he insisted he still wanted to shave €1.3bn off public sector wages, but there appeared to be caveats and the emergence of wriggle room as it was referred to as an “objective”.

But the problem with his front foot Dáil performance is that there did in fact appear to be, well, if not a deal per se, then, shall we call it an understanding between the two sides?

But trouble was brewing as speculation mounted through the day that a certain Brian Lenihan may not have been too happy with the Taoiseach’s hands-on approach to the negotiations which averted the threatened one-day national strike Government and unions had been desperate to get out of.

Especially as the unpaid holiday deal would bring in €800m at the very most – and that’s being generous – when the Government still insists it needs €1.3bn off the public payroll next year to make up the numbers in its €4bn packet of budget cuts.

The whole thing was all rather unusual after months of the softening-up operation ministers have been engaged in which has seen them putting it up to the unions, the taxpayers and the poor, preparing the ground for a savage budget and then at the last minute Mr Cowen appears to have capitulated to the SIPTU bosses with talk of a maximum €1bn reduction in public sector pay at most.

Mr Cowen talked of a wider “transformative” settlement to get the total bill down, but the unpaid leave seed would only paper over the cracks for a year, and even then expose a €500m hole in Government calculations.

It all had the whiff of the car crash emergency budget of October 2008 about it, but at least the wheels didn’t come off that one until it was unveiled, this one is looking untenable before it even gets going.

A chill breeze swept across the Leinster House lawn as Mary and the three wise guys, sorry, men, walked away from the spectacle that had briefly united them.

The lights may be about to go out across Ireland on budget day, but at least the Oireachtas Christmas tree will continue to twinkle in the national gloom.