Confusion over SF remarks unlikely to stop FG in its tracks

WITH prescience borne from years of political experience, PR adviser Terry Prone remarked in a newspaper column yesterday that only one thing could halt the march of Fine Gael and Labour towards impressive election results this Friday.

Those results would be realised provided none of the two parties made “a huge mistake”.

She could not have known at the time of writing that another Sunday newspaper had Fine Gael director of elections Frank Flannery on record as saying his party was prepared to work with Sinn Féin at some future point.

The question is whether Mr Flannery’s comments to the Irish Mail on Sunday were a mistake. For the record, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny was quick to disassociate himself from the remarks, saying Mr Flannery made them in a personal capacity and had not been speaking for the party.

Fine Gael was not prepared to do business with Sinn Féin, Mr Kenny stressed, and he would not be changing his mind on that issue. Asked why, he told RTÉ: “[Because] they have an army council.”

But it’s hard to believe that, having entered the last week of the campaign, Mr Flannery would be careless enough to throw out random remarks on ending a long-standing party policy of opposition to Sinn Féin and the IRA.

As Justice Minister Dermot Ahern noted yesterday, Mr Flannery isn’t an unimportant Fine Gael official. “He is the architect and conductor of all Fine Gael strategy under Enda Kenny. He never says anything in public which hasn’t been prepared well in advance as part of a clear blueprint.

“Clearly, he has decided that it suits Fine Gael to give Sinn Féin a boost at this time, irrespective of what it stands for,” Mr Ahern said.

It does indeed seem improbable that Mr Flannery would have made the remarks without the knowledge of his party leader, despite Enda Kenny’s disavowal. If, then, as seems the case, this was a deliberate strategy, the questions are why now and will it work?

Judging by Dermot Ahern’s remarks, Fianna Fáil believes Mr Flannery’s comments are aimed at persuading Fine Gael supporters to give their transfers, or second preferences, to Sinn Féin.

That would be of most value to both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin in the Dublin constituency in the European elections. There, Fine Gael and Labour are both on course to retain their seats, but Fianna Fáil MEP Eoin Ryan is in a desperate battle with Sinn Féin MEP Mary Lou McDonald for the third and final slot, the constituency having lost one seat since 2004.

Fine Gael would be delighted if Mr Ryan lost, knowing it would add to the pressure on Taoiseach Brian Cowen. Few in Fine Gael headquarters would care if Sinn Féin proved the beneficiaries.

But one political analyst, preferring to speak off the record yesterday, suggested it would be “too much even for Frank Flannery”, a man known for his optimism, to expect well-heeled Fine Gael voters in the “leafy suburbs” of Dublin to overcome years of hatred of Sinn Féin and give Ms McDonald their second preferences.

Mr Flannery’s real intention, the analyst suggested, may have been to soak up transfers from Sinn Féin instead.

Sinn Féin candidates are poised to make outside bids for seats in Ireland South and Ireland North West. The polls suggest that their candidates in both constituencies won’t actually win the seats, but when they are eliminated from the running, their transfers will have to go somewhere.

Basic logic suggests the transfers will go to similarly-minded left-wing candidates. It seems a bit of a stretch for the right-wing Fine Gael to hope the transfers will come in their direction. Nonetheless, Frank Flannery may have thought it was worth a shot.

But will it backfire for the “law and order” party? With a massive lead in the polls, Fine Gael needs only to continue their attacks on Government and putting forward their own policies in the coming days to keep their lead. Putting their arms around Sinn Féin handed Fianna Fáil an opportunity to go on the attack, which Dermot Ahern seized with relish yesterday.

But the simple truth is, Fine Gael are so far ahead, and discontent is so high with the Government, that the Sinn Féin issue probably won’t make much of an impression either way. It would take a truly seismic event to alter the course of the elections at this stage.