Limerick race proving chaotic

THE local elections for Limerick City Council have shades of Germany’s ill-fated Weimar Republic.

Then, successive governments which led Germany between world wars became so diluted with fractious minority interests there was no coherence and the system collapsed.

Limerick City Council will not fall asunder after June 5, but the balance of power is every bit as unpredictable as 1920s Germany. In the city there are 47 candidates seeking election for 17 seats.

This means there are the exact same amount of hopefuls as last time, when Fine Gael took five seats, held the balance of power and should have done better.

The city’s boundaries have been redrawn, with four wards becoming three – although the same number of seats apply.

Vote management is a difficult science at the best of times, but in 2004 it was a debacle.

Then, Fine Gael underestimated its support, took 26% of the vote, ran seven candidates and brought five of them home. They since picked up Cllr Jim Long.

By contrast, Labour ran five people, got half Fine Gael’s level of support and took four seats.

National polling points to a strong Labour performance but the party’s network in the Treaty city has had a chaotic five years.

Last June, it was isolated when a series of pacts between political parties broke down in the build up to the mayoral election.

The loser was Fine Gael’s Kevin Kiely, who was in line for the high-profile post. Fianna Fail changed sides, a previous alliance with Labour had fallen apart and Cllr John Gilligan became first independent mayor of the city in 40 years.

In 2008, Labour’s Kieran Walsh defected. However, the party gained the support of former rugby star Gerry McLoughlin, who was elected as an independent and has a daughter, Orla, running in the south ward.

Fianna Fáil gained a deputy mayor post out of last year’s mess but it was cold comfort for a party which did so badly in 2004. If it gets any worse next week, it could be wiped out.

On the plus side, Fianna Fáil’s fall, from six seats to two, means that better vote management of a similarly poor percentage would hand its candidates the appearance of victory.

It is difficult to understand the city’s love-hate relationship with the party. The local results contrasted heavily with the voters’ decision to send Defence Minister Willie O’Dea back to Dáil Eireann with a record result, and a running mate, Peter Power.

The reduction of one ward may make it easier for the party to manoeuvre its transfers, particularly with seven instead of nine candidates. And in turn this may worsen the plight of the 21 independent candidates.

There are seven more independents in the race compared with 2004. And, the Weimaresque spread among the larger parties could be complicated further if Sinn Féin enters the fray. Unlike other urban centres, SF has not made a breakthrough, but Maurice Quinlivan is spearheading a campaign in the north side.