Third South seat will come down to a dogfight

EVERYBODY is expecting a dogfight in the European elections for the third of the three seats in the South, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael expected to keep their seats in the constituency.

Fine Gael sees it as an opportunity to gain two seats, sitting MEP Kathy Sinnott is hoping to repeat her performance of 2004 and retain her seat, Labour’s Alan Kelly believes the seat’s his, and Sinn Féin’s Toireasa Ferris says she is in with a chance.

As in all cliff-hangers of this kind, everything will depend on who is the first of the hard hitters to be eliminated, with the transfers largely deciding the outcome of the third seat.

Fianna Fáil expects Brian Crowley to top the poll and even get in with a quota on the first count. His across the board appeal is not strictly party based and so he is escaping much of the opprobrium being heaped on the Government, as evidenced by his 27% polling.

His running mate, Cork East TD Ned O’Keeffe is not considered a serious contender, more a thorn in the side of the popular Mr Crowley for resisting the Taoiseach’s decision to have the party join the Liberal group in the Parliament.

Fine Gael, on the other hand, are not conceding anything despite running a candidate with massive name recognition against their sitting MEP, Colm Burke.

Unlike Mr Crowley, former GAA president Sean Kelly, on 17% in the polls, does not have a quota, but the party believes that they can use the public anger against the Government to increase their vote over the next few weeks.

In the MRBI poll former Cork Lord Mayor Mr Burke was at 10%. Fine Gael say their target is to get him to 13% and Sean Kelly to 20% of first preferences.

That would put the country’s most popular party at the moment in with a good chance of gaining a seat in South. If Colm Burke can leave Ms Sinnott behind, the party say they are in with a good chance of the Corkman picking up Cork votes from her and from the Green’s Dan Boyle.

Munster regularly reflects what is happening in the country overall and so it is with Mr Boyle’s poor showing of 3%, which coincides with the party’s popularity nationally.

North Tipperary man Alan Kelly would be the first Labour candidate to take a seat in this region since Eileen Desmond in the first election to the Parliament 30 years ago – a seat coincidentally handed over to her substitute, Tipperary man Séan Treacy mid-term when she returned to become health minister.

Even with household names like Limerick’s Jim Kemmy, Labour have not come close to taking a seat since. But the 33-year-old senator believes he can do it.

An early poster campaign and covering three counties a day in this constituency has raised his profile.

Alan Kelly is hoping too that his connections from having founded, in 1995, the party’s UCC branch to his travels for Fáilte Ireland, as well as the Spring factor and his Kerry wife, will give him a good showing in the far west. He is hoping his message on jobs and tapping into new technology with help from Brussels is getting through to a new generation his own age that are solution orientated and unused to work being scarce.

He is finding the Labour brand is an attraction, especially as Eamon Gilmore is the most popular party leader. But again he needs to come in before FG’s Colm Burke and pick up transfers.

Kathy Sinnott lacks the kind of high profile she had before the 2004 elections, when even being deprived of a Dáil seat by a handful of votes on the third recount in 2002 added to her profile. She has targeted family and health subjects and fishermen during her term – a wide catchment area.

She is likely to benefit from anybody looking to cast an anti-Lisbon vote in the absence of Libertas as she canvassed widely to reject the treaty last referendum. If Sinn Féin’s Toireasa Ferris is eliminated first, this vote could help re-elect Ms Sinnott.

If Kathy Sinnott goes first her votes could stay in Cork with Mr Burke or would benefit Labour.

Some were surprised at the 12% showing in the MRBI poll of Kerry County Council’s first Sinn Féin chairperson. Her strong showing many feel is at the expense of Labour. Though she inherited the seat from her father, TD Martin Ferris, she retained it in the 2004 election. A full-time councillor and part-time tutor in law at Tralee Community College, her refusal during a Late Late Show interview to condemn the killing of Garda Jerry McCabe upset many people.

Sinn Féin got 29% of Fine Gael transfers in north Kerry in the last election, Martin Ferris points out, adding that given the current climate she could have a similar pick-up throughout the constituency.

A lot depends on whether Fine Gael’s director of elections in South, the former MEP Simon Coveney, can manage to increase the party’s vote from 27% for both his candidates indicated by the poll to 33% – closer to their national rating of 34%.