Political bruiser’s leadership wounds are self-inflicted

The Taoiseach has been the maker of his own misfortune after 100 days in office, writes Political Correspondent Shaun Connolly.

IS BRIAN COWEN in power or merely in office? On his 100th day as Taoiseach, the fact that some of his own Fianna Fáil TDs are asking that question proves what a short, sharp, downward steer it has been from when they cheered him to the echo as he set off to receive the seals of office in the glorious early May sunshine to the soggy-looking, battered, administration he heads in the August washout.

Talk of a premature end to his premiership if next year’s local and European elections go badly are merely straws in the wind at this stage, but that it is even whispered shows how far things have deteriorated, and how fast.

His government has all too often appeared to be buffeted by events, rather than in command of them.

What has been most noticeable by its absence has been any feeling of a distinct strategic forward thrust to his administration.

The Lisbon referendum was an early, stinging blow to his authority as Taoiseach and one which will dog him through this year and the next and probably well beyond.

A surprisingly careless approach to detail and failure to chime with the mood music of voters were first made apparent in his defensive, downbeat and belated appeal for ratification.

To be fair, the wild conspiracy theories of the no side regarding abortion, neutrality, conscription and other outlandish scare stories were allowed to gain ground under his predecessor, as Fianna Fáil delayed setting a date for the vote and focusing on the campaign as Bertie Ahern’s extraordinary finances and, at times, unbelievable tribunal evidence, dominated the headlines.

Mr Ahern’s long global goodbye through April and Mr Cowen’s self-congratulatory coronation in May again shifted attention away from what was supposedly the number one Government priority of securing a yes vote.

A brilliantly effective and brilliantly misleading campaign by the no side meant the Government was fighting an up hill struggle when it finally did plunge into the fray.

A bluff comment by Mr Cowen that he had not read the whole treaty, was compounded when Commissioner Charlie McCreevy made a similar admission, revelling in the document’s inaccessibility in a piece of drive-by patronisation to voters which came across as: “You little people don’t need to understand it, just vote ‘yes’ and leave the important stuff to us.”

The feeling events were slipping away was crystallised when newly promoted Tánaiste Mary Coughlan twice proved she had no idea how many European commissioners each nation had. As the loss of an Irish representative in Brussels was just about the one Lisbon fact the electorate could lock onto, this was a particularly facile own goal.

Throw in Mr Cowen starting a totally unnecessary and highly counter-productive row with yes allies Fine Gael about nothing. Then there was the yes side’s inability to neutralise the opportunistic campaign by the IFA linking Lisbon with world trade talks until it was too late, and what should have been a turkey shoot for the pro-treaty side turned into a cliffhanger. Then on the morning of June 13, voters tipped the rookie Taoiseach off said cliff into a European-wide crisis he is struggling to find a way out of.

Then the credit crunch bit with a vengeance as the ESRI predicted a plunge into full-blown recession, with a long-range forecast for industrial strife if the pay talks really do collapse only adding to the gloom.

Yet ask voters to remember anything of substance the Taoiseach has said in these past 100 days and most would probably scratch their head and say: “Didn’t he call somebody a f**ker in the Dáil?” Hardly the mark of statesmanship, and exactly why Mr Cowen’s circle are keen for an autumn relaunch in which he can at last set out his “vision thing” to the nation?

A senior FF TD believes Mr Cowen can pull it back, but despairs at how far things have been allowed to slide in such a short time.

“It has been a very difficult 100 days. He has had trouble finding his feet and mistakes have been made. No doubt he will learn from that and move one.

“We are not in recession, but the downturn has been very difficult for the country. He has seemed a bit out of his depth. He has not boxed as clever as Bertie would have.

“That did surprise me. I expected a lot more from him and expected him to be more on top of his game. If the local elections do not go well then it is possible that his reign might not last as long as other people’s,” the TD concluded.

The elevation of the relatively inexperienced Brian Lenihan and Ms Coughlan may also have unbalanced Mr Cowen’s top team, as the trio all struggled to raise their games to carry out the three most pivotal roles in cabinet.

There is no doubt Mr Lenihan is a talented minister, the question is whether his talents are best suited to the ministry he was given. The urbane lawyer had proved himself a steady pair of hands at the Justice Department, but has emerged as the most gaffe-happy of the accident- prone Cowen/Coughlan/Lenihan triumvirate.

He misjudged the mood of the nation with an early attempted joke that he had the “misfortune” to get the finance brief just at the time the Irish economy headed south. It may have been the kind of thing to raise a sherry-totting titter in the law library at the Four Courts, but did not resonate well with the 19,000 people who had the misfortune to join the dole queue in June alone.

In wildly dramatic language for a Finance Minister, he spoke of the housing market coming to a “shuddering halt” and announced to foreign business leaders that you had to be over 21 to vote in Ireland. As everyone else in the country knows, the actual age is 18, underlying a nagging worry the finance supremo may be a bit shaky with numbers.

A trait bourne out when the Government gave a masterclass in how not to deliver bad political news with the drawn-out saga of the July cuts package.

The reaction to the release of the half-yearly Exchequer figures showing the country on target for a €3bn deficit was emblematic of an unlucky Government unable to strike the right tone.

Instead of getting out in front of the story and gaining some kudos for dealing with hard times in a coherent, determined way, the Taoiseach and Mr Lenihan ignored the Dáil and fronted a slightly bizarre press conference in Government Buildings in which they refused to give any real facts or figures over where the axe would fall. They announced things would emerge mysteriously over the following few days and even managed to turn the positive of finally accepting reality and realising the massive ministerial pay rises were a non-starter into a negative by blundering the announcement of its abandonment.

Then the July figures hit and it emerged the Exchequer was another €776m — heading the nation for a deficit of €4.5bn by years end. A huge increase on the projection that had provoked the emergency cuts package just a month earlier.

It just added to the feeling that no one was at the helm, and means we are in for a blood-letting budget in which huge borrowing, bigger than feared frontline spending cuts and tax increases will all have to feature.

Of course, the oil price surge and international slump will be blamed, but Mr Cowen’s own tenure at the Finance Department when he allowed public spending to expand greatly and failed to take steps in time to stop the property bubble exploding with such force will come under renewed focus.

Even Britain’s beleaguered PM Gordon Brown managed a rapturous first 100 days in power. It was so good he contemplated a snap election on foot of it. It was that inductiveness over calling a poll that triggered his spectacular fall from favour and left him a walking political corpse.

But then the British premier has an opposition with a killer instinct that senses his blood. Mr Cowen has Enda Kenny. He also has a Labour Party, which although sharper under Eamon Gilmore, is desperate to taste power again and would happily cut a deal with Fianna Fáil after a 2012 election.

However, the spectre of Lisbon still hangs heavy. A second referendum defeat would trigger a general election. A crisis election would be tough enough for FF, but a crisis recession election could prove impossible.

The pay talks will also be a crucial — and perhaps defining — test of Mr Cowen’s leadership.

If the agreement is allowed to collapse for the first time in a generation during his watch, it could solidify the image in the public mind that while he made a good number two, he just does not cut it in the top job. That is when the Fianna Fáil ratings, which have held remarkable well, may begin to tremble as we head into a winter of industrial strife made even bleaker by the bitter winds of recession.

It has been 100 days of hell for Mr Cowen and while he may take comfort from the fact the opposition has failed to land a real punch, the worrying reality remains that all the Taoiseach’s wounds have been self-inflicted.