Storm over Taoiseach dies down to a breeze

EVERYONE, it seems, is dampening expectations — even the opposition.

Today was supposed to be a day of reckoning for the Taoiseach, but it is now apparent this won’t be the case. Not by a long shot.

When the Taoiseach’s former secretary, Gráinne Carruth, accepted that monies she lodged to an account on his behalf in 1994 were originally sterling sums, it was arguably the single most damaging testimony to Mr Ahern heard at the tribunal to date.

At a stroke, his own evidence had been called into question, and the sight of Ms Carruth breaking down in the witness box did him no favours, either.

Though it took a week, Ms Carruth’s evidence eventually led to PD leader Mary Harney and her Green counterpart, John Gormley, saying only the Taoiseach could dispel that disquiet, and they called on him to do so.

The opposition parties seized on their comments as evidence that Mr Ahern’s entanglement in the tribunal was a real cause of concern within the Government.

There was speculation that the PDs and the Greens might consider pulling out of coalition if Mr Ahern did not rapidly issue a clarifying statement.

For their own part, Fine Gael and Labour focused on the imminent resumption of business in the Dáil today. Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore would demand answers, their parties indicated.

For a moment, it looked like the perfect storm was brewing for Mr Ahern. But as a Government source insisted yesterday — and he is most probably correct — it will, in fact, prove “a damp squib”.

For a start, the PDs and the Greens were never going to do anything rash. By acknowledging there was public disquiet about the conflict between the evidence of Mr Ahern and Ms Carruth, they were simply admitting the obvious.

They didn’t make any threats, they didn’t give Mr Ahern a deadline.

The simple fact is, neither Ms Harney nor Mr Gormley wants to quit Government. Therefore, neither is going to quibble if Mr Ahern gives a token response to questions from the opposition today. At least not publicly.

And what of those questions from the opposition? Fine Gael continues to insist that Mr Ahern will have to explain the conflict in evidence, but appears to have abandoned plans to table a motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach — for the simple reason it has no chance of succeeding, and would not achieve anything.

Labour was more realistic all along. Earlier this week, a Labour spokesman pointed out that it would be relatively futile to seek a detailed explanation from Mr Ahern in the Dáil.

This is because the Leaders’ Questions segment is scheduled to last for just 15 minutes. Mr Kenny and Mr Gilmore each get a few minutes to ask a principal question, or questions, and then, once Mr Ahern has given a response, they get another couple of minutes to ask a follow-up. And that’s it.

As the Labour spokesman pointed out, tribunal lawyer Des O’Neill usually has two days to grill Mr Ahern on each occasion he is called to Dublin Castle. In terms of putting detailed, forensic questioning — and forcing detailed answers — Leaders’ Questions “doesn’t really lend itself to that”.

There is a strong sense that Mr Ahern will come through today relatively unscathed. The pressure-cooker atmosphere that began building last week has most definitely cooled. Today might be tense, but the Taoiseach will still be standing at the end of it — comfortably so.