Four-in-ten voters are still undecided

Four-out-of-every-10 voters have not yet decided how they will cast their ballots on election day, according to the findings of the Irish Examiner/Lansdowne Market Research opinion poll.

And the poll also shows that an astounding 22% cast their votes based on their family’s traditional party allegiance.

The number of undecided voters is higher than expected and reflects increased volatility in the electoral landscape compared to the General Election of five years ago.

Some 42% of people say they have not yet made up their mind, compared to 58% who have decided.

While half of that undecided segment expressed a tentative preference for a particular party or candidate, 21% of those remain genuinely uncommitted, or don’t yet know, or will not vote. The higher percentage of floating voters means they may play a critical role in deciding this election.

With both alternative governments neck and neck in two successive opinion polls, the choices made by this group will be crucial.

The results of the Irish Examiner opinion poll were closely echoed by the Sunday Business Post/Red C tracking poll yesterday which showed Fianna Fáil at 37%; Fine Gael at 26%; Labour at 12%; Sinn Féin at 8%; the Greens at 8%, Independents at 6% and the PDs at a dismal 2%.

The Irish Examiner poll shows that indecision is higher among the younger generation. Some 58% of voters aged 24 or under have yet to decide on their first preference. By contrast, some 67% of those over 50 have already made up their minds.

More males (62%) than females (53%) have decided while, unsurprisingly, the farming social grouping is the most decisive.

The Irish Examiner poll also examines the reasons behind people’s voting intention. In that respect, the most eye-opening finding is that so many still vote in line with traditional family allegiances to a political party.

More than one-in-five voters give this as the reason and that figure rises to more than one-in-three for those aged 65 and over. The age group which owes least to family tradition are the under 50s — where it is the main reason for 19%.

The national policies of political parties are the main factor for the biggest group of people — 28% of those polled.

But it only just edges out local issues, which is the main determinant for 27%.

The personality of a candidate is the clinching reason for some 17% of voters.

In rural areas of Leinster, voters most often adhere to tradition. In Dublin, national policies are the most important factor, as they are in Munster. In Connacht/Ulster, local issues are considered the most important.