FF set to miss out on second Kerry seat

FIANNA Fáil has suffered a major decline in support in the constituency of Kerry and will fail to secure a second seat, according to a new poll published today.

Independent TD Jackie Healy-Rae will struggle to retain his seat against a tide of rising support for Fine Gael and Labour, the results of the Red C poll, conducted by the Kingdom newspaper in Kerry, conclude.

The downward trend in support for Fianna Fáil is exemplified in the decrease of first preferences from 45% to 39% in the poll.

While Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism John O’Donoghue is expected to again top the poll, with a 24% share of the first preference votes, a decrease of 2%, support for his running mate Tom Fleming has substantially decreased.

Since the 2002 election, when he narrowly missed out on a seat, his share of the vote has decreased from 19% to 15%, ruling him out of contention for a seat in the forthcoming election according to the poll.

In contrast, Labour’s Breeda Moynihan-Cronin, who reversed her decision not to contest the election last year, has seen her support increase by 7% since the last election and is on course to take the second seat.

Likewise, Fine Gael has increased its support by 6% since the last election.

Surprisingly, it is their new recruit Tom Sheahan who has increased the party’s first preference share and not Seamus ‘Cosai’ Fitzgerald, who polled strongly in the last election.

Support for Fitzgerald has actually decreased from 12% to 9%, while his colleague has polled 15% of the first preference vote on his first time out.

However, that showing will not be enough to see him overtake Jackie Healy-Rae.

If Fine Gael put in place a more effective vote management strategy which transfers most to Sheahan, then the seat currently held by Jackie Healy-Rae could be vulnerable.

The poll was commissioned before Sinn Fein candidate Lynn Ni Bhaoigheallain declared her intention to run.

A follow up telephone poll with a sample of 200 of those originally interviewed indicated that Sinn Fein can expect 6% share of the first preference vote.