FF poised to take second seat in Kerry South, poll shows

FIANNA FÁIL has a serious chance of winning a second seat in Kerry South in the next election, according to the results of an opinion poll released last night.

But, despite high expectations in Fine Gael, the party could again fail to regain the seat it lost in the constituency in 1989 if the TG4/ TNS MRBI poll is correct.

The poll, based on a sample of 500 people in 50 locations around the constituency, predicts a four-way contest for three seats, with Arts, Sport and Tourism Minister John O’Donoghue, FF, being by far the strongest candidate.

It shows Mr O’Donoghue performing well in all areas and has him comfortably elected with a strong first preference vote — more than 30%.

The two other sitting TDs, Labour’s Breeda Moynihan-Cronin and Independent Jackie Healy-Rae, would also be returned, the poll indicates.

The poll was taken after Ms Moynihan-Cronin — who last year announced her retirement from politics after the 2007 election — confirmed she would be a candidate.

In the 2002 election, the second FF candidate, Tom Fleming, came within 200 votes of winning a seat. The TG4 poll shows him doing well, again, and benefiting greatly from Mr O’Donoghue’s transfers.

“At this point in time, he appears well-positioned to challenge for a seat.

“The challenge for Fianna Fáil will be to maximise transfers to Fleming, while ensuring John O’Donoghue’s position,” the poll concludes.

The two Fine Gael candidates are struggling, according to the poll, which points out previous FG in-fighting in the constituency will not aid their cause.

The poll has the two FG candidates Seamus (Cosaí) Fitzgerald, based in the Dingle Peninsula, and Tom Sheahan, Rathmore, each on 9% of the first preference vote.

On last night’s The Week in Politics on RTÉ, Fine Gael’s senior constituency strategist Phil Hogan responded by saying that the party would have been better off running one rather than two candidates in Kerry South.

Mr Hogan also told the programme that he believes the Healy-Rae family is set to decide, this week, whether Independent TD Jackie, or his son Michael, will contest the next election.

The one issue of greatest importance to the Kerry South electorate is that of health/hospitals, cited by 46% of respondents. Crime/ law and order, on 26%, is regarded as the second most important, followed by roads, 21% and, in particular, road safety, 18%.