Irish population could return to pre-famine levels within 30 years

IRELAND’S population could double to 8.2 million within 30 years if current growth rates are maintained.

New research carried out by the EU shows that present fertility and migration rates could lead to a population explosion in the Republic.

It predicts that Ireland’s population could record a 100% increase by 2035. In contrast, it would take 157 years for the entire EU to record a 100% increase in population at present rates of demographic change.

However, the study by the EU statistical office, Eurostat, acknowledges that such growth rates as recorded in Ireland are unlikely to remain consistently high over the next few decades as EU population growth is slowing down in general.

Ireland’s recent population increase to over 4.2 million has resulted from having the highest natural change (number of births over deaths) of any EU country, at 8.1 per 1,000 population compared to the EU average of just 0.8.

The Republic also has net migration of 12.8 per 1,000 population — the third highest migration rate after Cyprus and Spain.

Combined, the effect of natural change and migration saw Ireland’s population grow by 2.4% last year — a rate of growth almost six times the EU average.

Ireland also had the highest birth rate in the EU last year at 14.7 births per 1,000, with Irish women having 1.88 children on average — the second highest rate after France at 1.94.

In Ireland, 32% of all births were outside marriage last year — 1% less than the EU average.

The Republic’s death rate at 6.6 per 1,000 population is also the lowest in the EU.

Life expectancy at birth for Irish people has improved dramatically within the past few years, rising from 76.5 years in 2000 to 79.4 years in 2005. The average life expectancy for Irish males is now 77.1 years, while the figure for Irish women is 81.8 years.

Ireland’s infant mortality rate at four deaths per 1,000 births is below the EU average of 4.5.

The popularity of marriage has also remained consistent since 2000, with an average of five marriages per 1,000 population each year.

Despite some concern expressed about increases in the number of divorces in Ireland, where 3,400 were granted last year, Ireland’s divorce rate at 0.8 per 1,000 population is joint lowest along with Italy, and less than half the EU average.

The study shows that population is still increasing in most European countries — the population of the EU grew by two million in 2005 to 463.5 million.

However, 14 European countries , including six EU member states — Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary and Poland — recorded falling populations in 2005.