Bird flu epidemic could kill up to 10,000 in Ireland

A BIRD flu epidemic could kill as many as 10,000 people in Ireland, according to Department of Health figures.

The estimated death toll from a new flu pandemic varies widely from a low of 500 to a high of 10,000 depending on how many people will get the new variant flu, how virulent the virus is and whether a vaccine has been developed to deal with it.

Public health and veterinary experts across Europe are coming to terms with the weekend confirmation that the virus found in samples taken from Romanian ducks in the Danube Delta is the same lethal strain that struck in Asia, killing more than 60 people and causing the deaths of 140 million birds in a dozen countries.

A similar strain has also been found on a farm in Turkey, prompting the European Union to adopt further new measures to keep the virus from spreading, including strengthening biosecurity on farms and putting early warning systems in high risk areas like wetlands.

Imports of live poultry birds, most poultry products and treated feathers from countries with bird flu have been banned by the EU while vigilance has been stepped up at sea and airports in Ireland and elsewhere to enforce these controls.

Experts fear that the virus could mutate into a form that is easily passed among humans, resulting in a global flu pandemic with the capacity to kill millions of people, disrupt travel, wipe out poultry industries and damage national economies.

A plan preparing for a flu pandemic, like the feared bird flu outbreak, was drawn up by the health department three years ago and is currently being updated.

At best a pandemic will attack only 10% of the population, cause 1,430 to be hospitalised and kill 505 people. But if the worst case scenario happened it would result in a social and economic catastrophe.

This worst case scenario is based on 45% of the population being infected in which case up to 26,000 would need hospital care and an estimated 10,786 deaths.

While those at high risk are in the 65-year-plus age bracket, babies and people with coronary conditions and diabetes would be particularly vulnerable.

Those who got the Hong Kong flu in 1968 or the more virulent Asian flu in 1957 could still have some resistance to the new strain. This is currently confined to fowl with people getting it directly from handling or eating contaminated meat.

Meanwhile, wild bird monitoring agencies at the front line in the efforts to detect the first signs of the lethal bird flu virus in Ireland will be updated by the Department of Agriculture and Food at a meeting today on the operation of an early warning system.

Veterinary experts in Europe stressed that the bird flu in Romania and Turkey remains confined to poultry and wild birds and at this stage no human cases have been confirmed.

The National Parks and Wildlife Service, the National Association of Regional Game Councils and BirdWatch Ireland will be briefed at today’s meeting, called by the Department of Agriculture and Food.

An early warning system where increased or unusual patterns of wild bird mortality are observed has already been introduced by the department with the help of these agencies.

Veterinary and health experts from the 25 EU member states will hold another emergency meeting on Thursday to assess developments, amid claims in an internal commission document that Europe is not prepared for a flu pandemic and has inadequate supplies of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Agriculture and Food Minister Mary Coughlan, who has assured the public that all necessary steps are being taken to prevent the virus from reaching Ireland, and Minister of State Michael Ahern, will attend a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg tomorrow at which the situation will be discussed.

Meanwhile, Labour Party spokesperson Dr Mary Upton, called on the Government to establish a national biosecurity unit to provide the maximum level of protection possible against avian flu and other threats to human health from animal diseases.