On your side or the outside?

‘Truth and honesty’ is fine, but FG needs local election success, says Political Editor Harry McGee.

EARLY LAST autumn, Fine Gael had a two-day parliamentary party gathering in a hotel down the country. The following morning at check-out time, a fax arrived at the hotel reception for the party leader.

The two receptionists, well-educated products of affluent 1990s Ireland, looked at each other quizzically. They turned to a guest at the counter and asked: "Do you have any idea what Enda Kenny looks like?"

Party strategists believed (correctly) that picking up the pieces for the party would take the lifetime of this Government. And moulding Enda Kenny into a leader of stature would present the second big challenge. FG bringing itself into a position where he could be seen as a credible alternative to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern was also going to be a long-term project.

Two years down the road, both projects have made headway but remain very much unfinished symphonies. Since the resumption of the Dáil, the party has made huge efforts to raise Kenny's profile. It culminated in the nationwide poster campaigns showcasing Kenny in the run up to the Árd Fheis.

Strategically, it is too early for now for any of the opposition parties to nail their colours to the mast in terms of policies. Their focus during the past months of pre-election conferences has been on pushing the moral dimension attacking the Government for its arrogance and remoteness; and questioning its motives, its honesty, its trustworthiness. In turn, all have put themselves forward as none of the above. Truth and "on your side" were the FG takes on it.

"We don't govern to rule. We govern to serve," is how Kenny himself nutshelled the them versus us debate during his Presidential address on Saturday night.

In his first year as leader, there were strong doubts surrounding Kenny's wherewithal. In addition to the profile problems, his performances in the Dáil and on radio and TV had been a little lacklustre.

In those terms, his very strong address last November was a watershed moment, the moment which he announced himself as the person in the driving seat. While still not the finished product yet, it is clear that he has gained a lot in confidence over the past six months, and is now assertive enough to put his own stamp on the party.

His presidential address this time round borrowed a lot of its rhetoric and thinking from the November address. In that sense, it represented consolidation rather than any major ground-breaking address.

There were a couple of policy directions that were signposted or hinted at. The party wants to set up a new savings scheme that will allow first-time house buyers to borrow for their deposit and which will also front-load mortgage interest relief. It wants a minister for small business. It will also major on education and technology. There was a suggestion it may begin to make quality of life indicators as important as economic ones when determining policies.

Kenny's own speech majored on the comparison of the moral and ethical qualities of the FF-PD Government and his party, the reaffirmation of FG principles (law and order; the North); and a repetition of FG's criticisms of the Government's record, namely 'rip-off Ireland', stealth taxes, and decentralisation. Of course, Noel Dempsey's bit of customisation on Education documents was a godsend. It gave a purpose and topicality to the new 'on your side' slogan.

"This Government we're building will make just one promise. But keep it. To govern by the truth. Even when that truth is tough. Because we respect the people of Ireland enough to give them the unvarnished truth.

"That's what Fine Gael standards demand. You see the big difference between our ethics and FF/PD ethics is we have ethics."

But despite the 'honest politics' brand, what kind of Government can Kenny build along with the Labour Party and the Green Party. Kenny, like Pat Rabbitte the previous week, spoke in generalities rather than in specifics.

"Because FG isn't alone in its commitment to honest politics, honest government. We're already working closely with other parties in the Dáil, who believe as we do, that after an elections, it's not just enough for politicians to form a Government.

"They must behave like a Government. And govern."

But govern what policies. The three parties have found common ground on some issues in the Dáil (the Irish language; Sinn Féin ambiguities; the plight of Irish emigrants for example) but we are still at least two years short of the three parties putting together an agreed programme of Government. Kenny himself has said this weekend that he wants this agreed programme to be in place at least six months in advance of the next General Election. But there are fundamental policy differences between all three parties that may prove tricky to iron out.

In addition, there is also the question of who will lead this democratic alliance.

Sharing the job with Rabbitte would be almost a curtains scenario for FG. For their part, to avoid that, they need to be strong enough coming out of the 2007 elections to make any notion of a revolving Taoiseach impossible. For that it needs to get a considerable lift from its static 22% showings in opinion polls and also for Kenny to complete the journey into leadership, quelling any doubts that still surround him.

And that's what makes the local and European elections so vital for Fine Gael. In a sense the party is a victim of its own success. In 1999, it won over 28% of the vote in the local elections. From one of the quirks of the PR system, it actually got a big bounce in terms of representation actually securing 32% of the seats. The party say they would be delighted to maintain that representation.

In truth, it would be a miracle. Getting 24-25% of the vote and hoping for a bounce in seats would represent a success for the party.

Two months ago, the party looked like it was going to get salamandered in the European elections. But they have managed to assemble a very strong team and have a fighting chance of taking a seat in every constituency. With the number of MEPs falling from 15 to 13, it will be a difficult proposition and the margin between a resounding success and disaster for the party will come down to the slenderest of margins.

Strangely the animus between Avril Doyle and Máiréad McGuinness may result in the unimaginable internecine warfare maximising the vote and leading to the party being in with a shout to take a second seat.

There might be a bit of wishful thinking in that from senior party figures. However, the Árd Fheis (like the others) did rally the troops who turned out in great numbers. As of now, the elections don't look like they will be dismal affairs for FG. But they need more than a gallant defeat the kind of 'ah, it wasn't as bad as we expected' logic. If the party is going to recover, it badly needs a boost on June 11. Otherwise, On Your Side will be left On (the) Outside, no matter how much honesty and truth they throw in our direction.