SF’s rising star may eclipse opponents in reshuffle

THERE are still 17 days to go and already North-West is turning into a roller-coaster ride.

At this stage, the only thing looking certain is the destination of one seat.

What the latest Irish Examiner/Questions & Answers opinion poll, conducted by Lansdowne Market Research, shows is Fianna Fáil should take that one seat. After that, it’s too close to call with all five leading candidates clustered within four points of each other.

Even trying to winkle out which of the two Fianna Fáilers, Jim McDaid or Sean Ó Neachtain, will prevail is problematic. On the basis of this poll, the order of the candidates seems to have reversed with Jim McDaid at 18% in the driving seat and Ó Neachtain at 15%. But if these findings were to be replicated on election day, there is an outside chance the party could pull one out of the bag and take two seats.

In general, there seems to be a separating of the wheat and the chaff, as far as electoral prospects are concerned.

Those on the wane include sitting MEP Dana Rosemary Scallon, whose support levels have plummeted to 7%, less than half of the 16% levels she achieved in 1999.

Fine Gael’s second candidate Madeleine Taylor-Quinn at 7% and Labour’s Hugh Baxter also seem to have, at best, remote chances.

North West is shaping into a battle between five candidates for three seats. They are Fianna Fáil’s McDaid and Ó Neachtain; Jim Higgins of Fine Gael (14%); Independent Marian Harkin (16%) plus one surprise package.

That comes in the shape of Sinn Féin’s 26-year-old candidate Pearse Doherty from Donegal, seen as one of the rising stars of his party. His 15% showing is as astounding as that of Kathy Sinnott in the South constituency in last Friday’s poll.

If he were to repeat that performance on election day, he would certainly be in the mix, but it is not possible to see where he would find the transfers to stay ahead of the other contenders. Irrespective of how he fares on the day, the Gweedore candidate will be perceived as a strong Dáil contender in 2007.

Harkin’s support levels are no less impressive. It must be noted that she performed very strongly in 1999, garnering 15% of the first preferences and came within a few thousand votes of Dana in the shake-up for the final of the three seats. The Sligo-Leitrim TD has a high profile throughout the

consituency both as a Dáil deputy and as a long-time campaigner for the West of Ireland. On the strength of these findings, she, along with McDaid, would be the favourites to win the first two seats.

But for Fine Gael, buoyed up by some encouraging polls last week, this poll finding may represent a slight reality check. Support levels of 14% will represent a disappointment for the party’s front-runner Jim Higgins. And while the combined total for the two FG candidates, at 21%, is just four points short of the quota, nothing can be taken for granted given the proximity of other candidates like Ó Neachtain and (possibly) Doherty.

On the basis of the mock count carried out in this poll, Hugh Baxter’s transfers would have spread across the board; the preponderance of Dana’s transfers would favour Harkin and Ó Neachtain, with Quinn transferring heavily to her FG running mate Higgins.

With Doherty transferring heavily to Harkin, the results of this survey would see the Sligo TD and FF’s McDaid being elected, with a close battle for the third seat between

Ó Neachtain and Higgins.

However, with a margin of error of +4%, subtle predictions are not possible.

THE disparity between this poll and the one carried out by TNS/mrbi for Saturday’s Irish Times, which showed Ó Neachtain with 20% support and Doherty with 9% can be explained by a number of factors. Both polls had the same sample size and number of sampling points. There is also a margin of error of +/- 4%-5%. And this poll carried out three days later may also reflect some shifts in voter allegiance. In the round, the two polls have largely identified the same candidates emerging as contenders. It is indicative of trends, not conclusive.

As for the local elections, FF will be most satisfied with the findings, with its 42% levels representing a gain of three points from 1999. For FG the poll findings show an apparent drop in support of 7%, down from 31% in 1999 to 24%.

As in other constituencies, Sinn Féin’s rise seems unstoppable. Given that there are five Border counties in the region, it was expected the party would have a strong showing. Still, its 14% support level compares with just 5% in 1999.

The PDs, whose only stronghold in the region is Galway West, will be heartened by its 5% showing, compared to 2% in 1999.

Labour shows a small increase of 1% to 4%. If it were repeated on election day, it would mean very modest returns indeed.

Meanwhile, the Greens have moved up from an almost marginal 1% to 3%, possibly reflective of strong organisations in Galway and Clare.