Government fears low turnout will cost Yes vote

THE Government is worried that a low turnout in Saturday's referendum could result in the Nice Treaty being lost again.

Parties campaigning for a Yes vote will focus all their energies in the next two days on bringing out as many people as possible in the hope it will swing a Yes vote.

Fianna Fáil officials and senior government sources believe a turnout greater than 45% is needed to swing a Yes vote, compared to the 34.7% turnout in last year's Nice referendum.

Recent opinion polls have sparked alarm within government circles over the size of the No vote.

"We have been worried and we're still worried," a government source said last night.

"The turnout is the key issue now. If people turn out, they'll be edging towards a Yes vote than a No one."

The Yes side are worried that a sizeable number of people are still voting No due to concerns about neutrality, despite efforts to reassure voters on the issue with the constitutional amendment and Seville Declaration.

Over the last two days of the campaign, Fianna Fáil will be distributing tens of thousands of leaflets specifically focusing on the neutrality issue.

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern also sought to rally the Fianna Fáil troops at a private meeting of the parliamentary party yesterday and urged members to campaign as hard as possible over the coming days.

Ministers and TDs have been instructed to try and encourage as many people to vote while party sources say that if all the Yes Fianna Fáil voters were mobilised, it would be enough to carry the Treaty.

The suggestions of complacency setting into the campaign on the back of opinion polls predicting a Yes win had unpleasant echoes of last year's first Nice referendum, FF officials said.

"We are very conscious about complacency and the complacent effect polls can have," a senior FF official said.

Reiterating the importance of the turnout, Junior Minister Willie O'Dea said if there was compulsory voting and a 100% turnout, then the Yes side would win easily.

"We have to guard against apathy and complacency. If our people turn out, certainly I can see it being carried," he said. Labour leader Ruairí Quinn said his party was ignoring the opinion polls and concentrating on ensuring the turnout was high.

He recalled that the divorce referendum opinion polls showed the Yes side was well ahead and the result ended up being exceptionally close.

"This referendum could go down and will go down to the wire. We have won the argument. Now what we have to do is win the turnout," he said.