Ahern’s goodwill hunting ahead of Nice

Political Editor, John Downing reports on the role the backbenchers are being asked to play before going to polls

PART of Bertie Ahern's job in Killarney last night and today is to remind his troops that other political parties would dream of having Fianna Fáil's current problems. As the biggest Dáil party by a mile they should be set fair to govern for up to another four years and eight months.

Even moderately seasoned FF campaigners pounding the election canvass beat last April and May knew that, if they succeeded in their mission, things would be extremely tough come this autumn. The economic slowdown and a tightening public purse meant it could not be otherwise.

So few surprises within FF now that they are being vilified in the public houses, at the chapel gates and other places where people gather. Whatever FF says, many people believe they were codded on May 17 last.

The extent of the cutbacks is something of a shock to ordinary folk. So is the local detail, affecting that hospital service, this school refurbishment or that town bypass.

Unsurprisingly, the people most in the frontline of defence the Fianna Fáil backbenchers - fell least responsible, least well informed and most vulnerable to the voters' ire. They voiced their feelings ahead of this two-day meeting in Killarney.

As if to compound difficulties, the FF backbench TDs are suffering anyway. The newly-elected ones had been hot-housed by their local organisation and in some cases given huge help from national headquarters and, dare one say it, Government Buildings.

But now these neophytes find their work at Leinster House and in constituencies is prosaic enough. The Dáil chamber is hardly a spit from the adjoining Government HQ. But for new TDs it may as well be a lifetime away.

At the same time, the more established TDs have got over the joy or relief of being re-elected and are re-appraising their careers. A by-product of the Taoiseach opting for minimal cabinet and junior minister change last June, is that these ambitious longer-serving backbenchers are bored and somewhat frustrated.

These sentiments are compounded by the fall-out from the National Stadium debacle last week. The abrupt decision to withdraw government investment from this project has been seen as allowing the Progressive Democrat tail to wag the Fianna Fáil dog.

It also deprived Mr Ahern of considerable moral force within his own FF house. Melodramatic observers suggest it puts him on the slippery slope.

That is an over-statement. But it is true the incident has made it imperative for him to get back in control. Again, the dramatic ones would suggest he do this by putting people in their place.

But Mr Ahern did not choose that option for this Killarney FF jamboree for two reasons. Firstly, it is not his style; secondly, it would not help his case.

The reality is that Mr Ahern badly needs his backbenchers' goodwill right now. He did not, however, shrink from telling his TDs and Senators that there are more tough times ahead and that he will not be playing Santa Claus in the next Budget on December 4.

Mr McCreevy, in his own inimitable style told them sane and sensible economic policies were the only way forward. To some degree he appeared to almost glory in bringing grim news.

The real difficulty is that such grim news of cutbacks is inextricably linked to the Taoiseach's key mission to have the Treaty of Nice ratified.

The EU deadline for ratification of the Treaty is December 31 and Mr Ahern continues to contemplate the date for a second referendum which at the kindest estimate will be an uphill fight. His preferred date was mid-October but he will be said by opinion surveys which measure his chances of success.

Such success hopes depend heavily on these discontented backbenchers mobilising their teams at the local hustings. This did not happen in June 2001 when the proposition was lost by 54% to 46% with only one in three voters bothering to turn out.

Apathy and ignorance remains a huge obstacle to success again.

So put another way, Mr Ahern was last night asking his troops to go out and take more abuse from voters who say they were hoodwinked in the general election last May. Their response will be the most reliable commentary on Mr Ahern's moral authority.

This once remote Nice Treaty business has suddenly become immediate.

The Taoiseach went to Killarney yesterday to seek his backbench colleagues help and support. Within six to eight weeks when the country's voters are again called to the polls on the Nice, we will learn whether he succeeded.

If he did - all will be well; if not, then he had better watch his back.