Nice Yes may calm storm in Bertie Bowl

LESS than four months ago, Bertie Ahern was High King of Ireland. As head of the first Government to be re-elected since 1969, he was hailed as the most popular politician since Jack Lynch, who in his day had been dubbed the most popular since Daniel O’Connell.

By Thursday, those inmates of Leinster House with a more highly developed taste for all things apocalyptic, were muttering about the beginning of the end for the Taoiseach. It goes without saying that such talk borders on the hysterical.

But politics is not just an extremely cruel business it is also very fickle. Seasoned campaigners will also tell you that one is most vulnerable when things appear to be going swimmingly.

In years to come, students of politics will study the whole National Stadium debacle as an exercise in how not to go about developing a large-scale public investment project. Bertie Ahern has been left in the worst of all worlds. The biggest shock of all in last Tuesday's announcement about the stadium was that there will not be the smallest modicum of State funding available for its construction.

All the signals in political circles had been that an honourable compromise could be found between the Taoiseach, who has long championed the stadium plan, and the Progressive Democrats, who have spent the last three years opposing the idea with varying degrees of vehemence. The mood music being played out suggested that a scaled-down stadium could be approved for the Abbotstown site, with a major injection of private cash to soften the blow for the taxpayer.

Since the 2008 European soccer championships were seen as the deadline for completion, State investment could have been rolled out, slowly minimising the public burden in these straitened times.

It is now clear this scenario totally underestimated the level of PD determination that the National Stadium would not happen as a State project at this time. In fact, it now emerges that if hardy came to hardy, the PDs would have been prepared to pull out of government on the

issue. But the other element missing in the compromise theory was the reticence of Mr Ahern's beloved FF colleagues in government. Clearly, they dumped their popular leader last Tuesday, leaving him in a minority of one.

Again, with hindsight, this attitude of FF Cabinet ministers should not have been a major surprise. They are all looking at having to drive through unpopular cutbacks in the coming months, involving spending on health, education, transport and other bread and butter services.

Calling them adjustments in the rate of increase in spending is not going to be much help. The view of everybody in government, bar Mr Ahern, was that this was no time to be talking of spending on fun items. It takes no imagination to realise the legacy of poisonous relations which arise from all of this. It is not just FF-PD bad blood it is also about strained relations within the FF party and the Government itself.

Yes, it is hysterical to talk about the beginning of the end for Mr Ahern as Taoiseach. But there is no way to disguise the body blow he has received, which has clearly undermined his moral authority as leader. He now needs to get back into the driving seat quickly.

Through the idle summer days, there were mutterings about potential dissent in the ranks of Fianna Fáil which could develop into a leadership heave. Those close to Mr Ahern were utterly dismissive of these, saying that paper never refused ink and this nonsense was a classic silly season product.

Those defenders of the Taoiseach may well be right. But against that, it is also clear there is a deal of frustration and boredom in the FF ranks.

Mr Ahern's decision to make only minimal changes in the senior and junior government ranks last June has left many of them wondering when, if ever, can they aspire to promotion. Boredom is in many ways the most dangerous condition of all it frequently leads to mischief.

Let us stress that we are nowhere near an anti-Ahern coup. But if the Taoiseach were to fail at his next big test, the re-run Nice Treaty referendum, we just might have to revise that analysis.

There is a growing conviction within FF that Nice is winnable but everyone feels it could be a perilously close call. The public are, as always, finding it difficult to contain their indifference to all things related to the EU. It is never going to be a popular theme, and these days it appears easier to rise a negative rather than a positive response.

The big imponderable remains whether or not the FF troops will spare the time to mount a proper campaign. Mr Ahern has put the onus on all TDs to deliver in their own constituencies and he has re-assembled the team which delivered him such joy in the general election on May 17.

But the No campaigners have a spring in their step and hope the strange mood of disaffection abroad in the land will play to their advantage. Mr Ahern is still awaiting the right time to call the referendum and may delay beyond his favoured time of mid-October in hopes of getting a more sympathetic hearing from the public.

This Nice vote was always crucial to Mr Ahern for a whole variety of reasons. But following this week's events it takes on an added significance. It may turn out to be about more than the Taoiseach's prestige at home and abroad. It just might be about his survival in office.